Expectativas devaluatorias y actividad: Análisis de un modelo ARDL para Argentina (2017-2023)

Hunicken, Javier (2025): Expectativas devaluatorias y actividad: Análisis de un modelo ARDL para Argentina (2017-2023).

Abstract

Resumen El presente artículo resalta la importancia de analizar las expectativas de devaluación en economías bimonetarias pequeñas y abiertas que no cumplen la condición de Marshall-Lerner. Se explica un modelo IS-LM con una demanda de dinero modificada para incorporar expectativas devaluatorias y se lo estima por ARDL para Argentina en el período entre diciembre de 2016 y agosto de 2023. Una combinación de teoría y resultados lleva a considerar que en este tipo de economías el control de las expectativas de devaluación se posiciona como un instrumento de política clave que permite complementar y asegurar la efectividad de instrumentos clásicos de política fiscal y monetaria y remarca la importancia de la credibilidad de las autoridades económicas. El artículo resalta la importancia del equilibrio fiscal en estas economías y propone una política de fijación de tasas de interés para controlar expectativas de devaluación. Abstract The present article emphasizes the importance of controlling devaluation expectations in small open bimonetary economies when the Marshall-Lerner condition does not hold. It develops an IS-LM model with a modified money demand that incorporates devaluation expectations in its specification and is estimated using an ARDL model for Argentina in the period December 2016 to August 2023. A combination of theory and results leads to the conclusion that the control of devaluation expectations in such economies emerges as a key policy instrument to complement and ensure the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, underscoring the importance of the credibility of economic authorities. Furthermore, the article highlights the importance of fiscal balance in these economies and proposes a monetary policy based on fixing interest rates to control devaluation expectations.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Devaluation expectations and output: An ARDL model analysis for Argentina (2017-2023)
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Tipo de cambio; Expectativas de devaluación; Condición Marshall-Lerner; Sustitución de monedas; Política monetaria; ARDL; Argentina; Exchange rate; Devaluation expectations; Marshall-Lerner condition; Currency substitution; Monetary Policy.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D84 - Expectations ; Speculations; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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