Perishability, Market Connectivity, and the Propagation of Climate Shocks

Zhao, Kai (2026): Perishability, Market Connectivity, and the Propagation of Climate Shocks.

Abstract

How do product perishability and market connectivity jointly determine the propagation of climate shocks through food supply chains? Using 6.7 million daily wholesale price observations across 234 markets and 46 products in China (2017–2023) matched to typhoon track data, this paper documents that typhoon exposure raises wholesale prices by 4.1 percent within 100 km, with effects extending to 500 km but concentrated among vegetables. A triple-interaction specification reveals that the price response increases with operational perishability (β̂₁ > 0), decreases with market connectivity (β̂₂ < 0), and that connectivity buffers perishable goods disproportionately (β̂₃ < 0). Moving a market from the 25th to the 75th percentile of connectivity reduces approximately 60 percent of the typhoon price impact on vegetables. These findings suggest that distribution network density may serve as a form of climate adaptation for food systems.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: climate shocks, food prices, market connectivity, perishability, supply chain resilience, typhoons
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Economics > R41 - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion ; Travel Time ; Safety and Accidents ; Transportation Noise

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