Muleta-Erena, Temesgen (2026): The Activation Trap: A Hybrid Model of Inactive Capital, Symbolic Modernisation, And Low Equilibrium Dynamics in Aid Dependent South.
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Abstract
This paper develops a hybrid theoretical model of low activation economies, defined as systems where substantial human, physical, and institutional capital exists but remains underutilised. While low activation individuals exist globally, the structural form of low activation is particularly pronounced in the Aid Dependent South, where institutional incentives reward conformity, symbolic modernisation, and administrative loyalty rather than innovation. Building on Baran’s concept of potential surplus and his metaphor of underdeveloped economies living “in the shadow of the sun,” the paper integrates insights from Solow (1956), Romer (1990), Pritchett (2001), Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019), Easterly (2001, 2006), Sen (1999), and Bourdieu (1986). A replicator dynamics game theoretic model demonstrates how innovation is suppressed, conformity becomes evolutionarily stable, and economies become trapped below an activation threshold. The model explains persistent agrarian technological stagnation despite the presence of universities, graduates, digital tools, and global knowledge. The paper concludes by interpreting inactive capital as economic entropy and symbolic modernisation as a mechanism that stabilises low activation equilibria.
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