The i-Criterion Dilemma: A Regulatory Impact Assessment of Market Displacement, Fiscal Contraction, and Criminological Risk in Amsterdam

Spencer, Joe (2026): The i-Criterion Dilemma: A Regulatory Impact Assessment of Market Displacement, Fiscal Contraction, and Criminological Risk in Amsterdam.

Abstract

This study assesses enforcing a cannabis coffeeshop tourist ban (the i-criterium) in Amsterdam’s projected 2026 economy. Using a Regulatory Impact Assessment approach, it highlights a notable shortfall in what the authors term “Fiscal Reciprocity”: non-resident tourists would face a combined tax burden of 33.5% (21% VAT plus 12.5% municipal tourist tax) while remaining excluded from the protections offered by a retail sector that is 98.4% Bibob-compliant. Econometric estimates, applying a substitution rate of σ = 0.3, predict an overall economic decline of €488 million and an associated €55 million displacement into unregulated street markets labeled here as “Criminal Capture.” The paper recommends adopting a “De‑Risking Strategy” — a 24‑month pause in new regulatory measures to reassess current fiscal disincentives before moving forward with prohibitionist enforcement.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: i-criterium, Amsterdam, Cannabis Policy, Fiscal Reciprocity, Econometric Modeling, Criminological Forecasting,
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; K - Law and Economics > K2 - Regulation and Business Law; K - Law and Economics > K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior > K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R5 - Regional Government Analysis > R58 - Regional Development Planning and Policy

References

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