Strategic Autarky and Structural Crisis Management: Time Horizons of State Resilience

Lovo, Rodolfo (2026): Strategic Autarky and Structural Crisis Management: Time Horizons of State Resilience.

Abstract

This paper examines autarky not as an ideological doctrine of economic isolation, but as the measurable capacity of a State to sustain essential functions without external support for a strategically relevant period of time. Contemporary debates frequently reduce autarky to extreme historical experiences, overlooking its continuing relevance as a matter of resilience, continuity, and survival under systemic disruption. The paper proposes a redefinition of autarky in operational terms: not as permanent self-sufficiency, but as the temporary capacity for autonomous endurance under adverse conditions. Within this framework, the central variable is time: how long can a State maintain food supply, energy continuity, institutional order, basic healthcare, internal logistics, and monetary functionality if external flows are interrupted? The article introduces a conceptual indicator termed Structural Crisis Management Capacity (SCMC), designed to evaluate the interaction between material reserves, productive adaptability, administrative competence, energy continuity, and social cohesion during emergencies. It also incorporates the role of informal markets as adaptive mechanisms of economic continuity when formal channels become blocked or insufficient. The main argument is that economic efficiency in normal times does not guarantee resilience in exceptional times. Many States may appear resilient under conditions of uninterrupted external supply despite limited structural preparedness for prolonged disruption. Recent disruptions involving pandemics, sanctions regimes, cyberattacks, maritime bottlenecks, energy instability, and supply-chain fragmentation have renewed interest in strategic resilience even among highly globalized economies. This article forms part of a broader analytical sequence in which previous works examined the structural foundations of markets, inflation beyond exclusively monetary explanations, and distortions generated by simplified economic doctrines. The present contribution extends that framework from market functioning to state continuity under crisis conditions.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: autarky; resilience; state capacity; crisis management; informal markets; strategic reserves; energy security; dependency; systemic risk
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy; H - Public Economics > H1 - Structure and Scope of Government > H11 - Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O10 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O17 - Formal and Informal Sectors ; Shadow Economy ; Institutional Arrangements; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P11 - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

References

Lovo, R. The Market as a Natural Institution. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19601635

Lovo, R. Inflation Beyond Money: A Structural Interpretation of Value Distortion. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19601746

Lovo, R. Economic Mantras and Structural Distortion of the Market. Submitted to MPRA.

Lovo, R. Money, Record-Keeping, and Concentrated Capacity: A Structural Framework for Economic Power. Submitted to MPRA.