India-UK CETA: Estimating Market Access Opportunities for India

Sabeer, V.C. and Raju, Sunitha and Shah, Ninad (2025): India-UK CETA: Estimating Market Access Opportunities for India. Published in: IIFT Working Paper No. WPS No. EC-25-80 (29 November 2025)

Abstract

We analyse the potential market access opportunities provided by CETA structured into two stages : (i) identify untapped export potential in India-UK bilateral trade and assess their export prospects; (ii) analyse how India’s exports respond to tariff reductions based on CES demand function. Together these dimensions explain why India’s global export performance for these products has not translated into expansion in UK market. We identified 140 export potential products and based on spatial-infrastructural perspective, our results show that tariff liberalization only provides a favourable price environment but India must build export linkages and strengthen supply chain capacities to convert this potential into tangible trade gains. The simulation results show that CETA results in an increase of USD 1.59 billion gain in India’s exports and the largest gains are concentrated in Textile and Apparel (HS 61–63), Aluminium (HS 76), Prepared food products (HS 20) and Cereal preparations (HS 19) with modest gain in other sectors. For unlocking substantial export potential gains it is necessary to overcome both demand- and supply-side hurdles. Exporters must align with UK market requirements, while policymakers should focus on facilitating B2B partnerships, supporting compliance with UK standards, and addressing non-tariff barriers.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Trade Policy, FTA, CETA, Partial equilibrium, India, U.K.
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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