Kolettis, Nikolaos (2026): The Hellenic Economy: 2026 to 2030 Outlook and Current Progress. Published in: EWC Investments - Think Tank , Vol. 1, No. Issue 1
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_129251.pdf Download (2MB) | Preview |
Abstract
The Hellenic Economy: 2026 to 2030 Outlook and Current Progress (Research Note EWC-TT-2026-0007, Public Edition, May 2026) is the institutional five-year forward outlook on the Greek economy from the EWC Investments Think Tank. Authored by Founder Nikolaos Kolettis, the 143-page research synthesises the Greek macroeconomic, fiscal, banking, equity, tax, geopolitical, and digital asset trajectories into a single coherent forward view through 2030. The thesis is that Greece is delivering the most structurally coherent recovery in the European periphery and that the markets have not yet fully priced this. The research is grounded in the convergent reading of every primary institutional data publisher that covers the Greek economy: the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), the Bank of Greece, the European Commission Spring and Autumn Forecasts, the International Monetary Fund Article IV consultations, the OECD Economic Outlook, Eurostat, the six sovereign rating agencies, and the Independent Authority for Public Revenue (AADE). Each numerical claim is cross-verified against a minimum of two independent institutional attributions. Original analytical contributions include a new institutional treatment of the 2019 to 2026 Greek tax architecture reform programme and a structured four-country comparative against Poland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, and Romania. The Public Edition is available with citation permission for academic, journalistic, and analytical use.
| Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
|---|---|
| Original Title: | The Hellenic Economy: 2026 to 2030 Outlook and Current Progress |
| English Title: | The Hellenic Economy: 2026 to 2030 Outlook and Current Progress |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | Greece, Hellenic economy, eurozone, sovereign debt, primary surplus, Greek tax architecture, VAT gap, AADE, myDATA, investment grade, sovereign rating, MiCA, Digital Euro, Greek banks, ATHEX, Greek sovereign bonds, Greek-Italian spread, debt deleveraging, Greek tourism, Greek shipping, FDI Greece, Recovery and Resilience Facility, Greece 2.0, post-bailout, fiscal reform, EWC Investments, EWC-TT-2026-0007, structural recovery, European periphery, five-year forecast |
| Subjects: | A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A10 - General C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C50 - General J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J0 - General K - Law and Economics > K0 - General L - Industrial Organization > L0 - General P - Economic Systems > P0 - General Y - Miscellaneous Categories > Y5 - Further Reading (unclassified) |
| Item ID: | 129251 |
| Depositing User: | NIKOLAOS KOLETTIS |
| Date Deposited: | 05 Jun 2026 15:22 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Jun 2026 15:23 |
| References: | Hellenic national institutions and primary data publishers Bank of Greece. Financial Stability Review. Athens, May 2025. Bank of Greece. Note on the Greek Economy. Quarterly series, 2024 to 2026. Bank of Greece. Monetary Policy Report. Athens, 2025 to 2026 editions. Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) Notifications. First notification April 2025, Second notification October 2025. Piraeus. Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). Quarterly National Accounts. 2024 to 2026 series. Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). Labour Force Survey, Quarterly Series. 2024 to 2026. Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). Services Production Index. September 2025 release. Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). Population Census 2021 and Birth Statistics, 2010 to 2024. Hellenic Ministry of National Economy and Finance. Draft State Budget 2026. Athens, 6 October 2025. Hellenic Ministry of National Economy and Finance. Thessaloniki International Fair Address by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. 6 September 2025. Hellenic Ministry of National Economy and Finance. Strategic Debt Management Framework and 2035 Targets. Athens, 2025. Independent Authority for Public Revenue (AADE). Annual Statistical Report 2024. Athens. Independent Authority for Public Revenue (AADE). POS-Cash Register Integration Sectoral Analysis, 2023 to 2024. Greek Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA). Greek Public Debt Bulletin and Maturity Profile. Athens, 2025 editions. Hellenic Capital Market Commission (HCMC). Decision 8/1059, MiCA Implementation Framework. Athens, July 2025. Athens Stock Exchange (ATHEX). Market Statistics and Annual Performance Data 2025. Hellenic Gaming Commission (ΕΕΕΠ). Annual Report 2024 and Sectoral Statistics. Greek legal framework Law 5193/2025 of the Hellenic Republic. Transposition of Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 (MiCA) and Related Provisions on Crypto-Asset Service Providers. Official Gazette of the Hellenic Republic, April 2025. Law 5073/2023 of the Hellenic Republic. Mandatory myDATA Transmission Framework for VAT-Registered Entities. Official Gazette of the Hellenic Republic. Law 4646/2019 of the Hellenic Republic. Tax Reform Framework and Initial myDATA Provisions. Official Gazette of the Hellenic Republic, 12 December 2019. European Union institutions European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN). European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2025. Brussels, 17 November 2025. European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN). European Economic Forecast, Spring 2026. Brussels, 19 May 2026. European Commission, Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD). VAT Gap in the EU, 2025 Report. Luxembourg, 2025. European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. Post-Programme Surveillance Report on Greece. Brussels, 2024 and 2025 series. European Central Bank. Digital Euro Investigation Phase, Progress Reports. Frankfurt, 2024 to 2025. European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Financial Assistance to Greece, Archive and Loan Repayment Records. Luxembourg. Eurostat. Government Deficit and Debt Statistics, End-2025. Luxembourg, 2026 release. Eurostat. Real GDP Per Capita in Chain-Linked Volumes, 2018 to 2023. Luxembourg. Eurostat. Net Annual Earnings Statistics, EU-27 Comparison. Luxembourg. International institutions International Monetary Fund. Greece, 2026 Article IV Consultation, Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission. Washington, D.C., 24 March 2026. International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook, April 2026 Edition. Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund. Greece, Country Reports, Selected Editions. 2010 to 2025. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2. Paris, December 2025. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. FDI in Figures, May 2026 Release. Paris. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Tax Administration Reform Review, Mediterranean Europe. Paris, 2024. Sovereign rating agencies Scope Ratings GmbH. Hellenic Republic, Long-Term Sovereign Rating Action. 4 August 2023, BBB-. DBRS Morningstar. Hellenic Republic, Long-Term Sovereign Rating Action. 8 September 2023, BBB (low). S&P Global Ratings. Hellenic Republic, Long-Term Sovereign Rating Action. 20 October 2023 (BBB-) and April 2025 (BBB upgrade). Fitch Ratings. Hellenic Republic, Long-Term Sovereign Rating Action. 1 December 2023 (BBB-) and 14 November 2025 (BBB upgrade). Kroll Bond Rating Agency. Hellenic Republic, Long-Term Sovereign Rating Action. Late 2024, BBB. Moody's Investors Service. Hellenic Republic, Issuer Credit Rating Action, Ba1 to Baa3 Upgrade. 14 March 2025. Academic and think-tank sources Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). The Greek Debt Crisis: No Easy Way Out. Washington, D.C., 2022. Bruegel. Working Papers and Policy Contributions on Greek Macroeconomic and Fiscal Trajectory. Brussels, 2023 to 2026. Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE). Greek Economic Outlook, Quarterly Series. Athens, 2024 to 2026. Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE). Impact of POS-Cash Register Integration on VAT Revenue Recovery. Athens, December 2024. Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP). Policy Papers on Greek Reform Programme and EU Integration. Athens. Centre of Planning and Economic Research (ΚΕΠΕ). Greek Economic Outlook, Quarterly Series. Athens. Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), VoxEU. Selected Contributions on Greek Macroeconomic Recovery. London, 2024 to 2026. Cited press and journalism Kathimerini (Greek and English editions). Coverage of the Thessaloniki International Fair Package and Greek Fiscal Trajectory. 8 September 2025 and subsequent. ProtoThema. 2025 Fiscal Year Tax Revenue Analysis and Thessaloniki Package Coverage. 9 September and December 2025. GreekCityTimes. POS-Cash Register Integration Sectoral Analysis. April 2025. Reuters, Bloomberg, and Financial Times. Selected coverage of Greek sovereign rating actions, ECB policy, and eurozone macro trajectory, 2024 to 2026. Market data providers Trading Economics. Greek Macroeconomic, Sovereign Debt, Primary Balance, and Bond Yield Series. Various access dates 2025 to 2026. LSEG (Refinitiv). ATHEX, Greek Sovereign Bond, and FX Data Feeds. Various access dates. Bloomberg L.P. Greek Sovereign, Equity, and Cross-Asset Market Data. Various access dates. |
| URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/129251 |

