T HE E FFECTS OF D EMOGRAPHIC C HANGES AND I NTERNATIONAL M IGRATION ON E CONOMIC G ROWTH : A R EGIONAL A NALYSIS *

Wabenga Yango, James and Moran, Kevin (2025): T HE E FFECTS OF D EMOGRAPHIC C HANGES AND I NTERNATIONAL M IGRATION ON E CONOMIC G ROWTH : A R EGIONAL A NALYSIS *.

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impacts of global demographic changes on GDP growth. It categorizes countries into advanced, emerging and developing economies and conducts the analysis region by region. The first results pertain to a decomposition of per capita GDP growth into its main contributors. They show that in advanced economies, productivity per hour and total hours worked are the main contributors to GDP per capita growth. In contrast, productivity per hour and an expanding working-age population in emerging economies are important for GDP growth. Finally, in advanced economies, hours worked per job have fallen and thus have a negative effect on GDP per capita growth.

The second results are obtained from panel models that estimate the impact of demographic trends on GDP per capita growth. This analysis is once again conducted region by region and one demographic (aging, fertility, life expectancy, immigration, etc.) and growth in GDP per capita at a time. The results notably report that larger proportions of older adults positively influence GDP per capita growth in emerging and developing economies, whereas this ageing has a detrimental effect in advanced economies. The findings indicate that shifts in the working-age population positively impact GDP per capita across developing, emerging, and advanced economies, whereas changes in the youth population have a negative effect on GDP per capita in these economies as well. Finally, net immigration increases GDP per capita growth in advanced and developing economies, but it decreases growth in emerging economies.

These findings contribute to the ongoing debates about the macroeconomic consequences of demographic shifts and highlight the importance of conditioning the analysis on the region or the stage of economic development.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Demographic trends; International migration; Economic Growth
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F22 - International Migration; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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