Qualité des dépenses publiques en République Démocratique du Congo : construction d'un indice composite de résultats, mesure d'efficience par frontières stochastiques et analyse d'équité infranationale (2020–2025)

Nasha Bolingo, Jean-Philippe and Kiala T'Sinda, Man David (2026): Qualité des dépenses publiques en République Démocratique du Congo : construction d'un indice composite de résultats, mesure d'efficience par frontières stochastiques et analyse d'équité infranationale (2020–2025).

Abstract

This article investigates the quality of public expenditure in the Democratic Republic of Congo over the 2020–2025 period, combining three analytical approaches: a composite outcome indicator, a stochastic frontier efficiency model, and a subnational equity analysis. A Budget Quality Index (BQI) was constructed from sectoral indicators aggregated through Principal Component Analysis; technical efficiency scores were estimated using the Generalized True Random Effects stochastic frontier model on a panel of 14 Sub-Saharan African countries over the same period; and the economic structure of provincial transfers was examined across all 26 provinces. Results indicate that the DRC's BQI rose from 33.0 to 43.6 out of 100 between 2020 and 2025, a genuine improvement that nonetheless leaves the country well below the panel average of 55/100. Total technical efficiency stands at 0.625 against a panel mean of 0.744 — and, crucially, the bulk of observed inefficiency proves to be persistent rather than transient. At the subnational level, 8 of the 26 provinces allocate over 80% of their transfers to compensation, a structural rigidity that severely constrains both operational and investment capacity. The article's main contribution lies in the joint application, to the DRC case, of a multidimensional BQI, a GTRE decomposition distinguishing persistent from transient inefficiency, and an infranational transfer equity analysis by economic category — a combination that remains largely undocumented in the existing literature on Congo.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Quality of public expenditure in the Democratic Republic of Congo : construction of a composite outcome index, stochastic frontier efficiency measurement and subnational equity analysis (2020–2025)
• Language: French
• Keywords: public expenditure quality; Budget Quality Index; SFA/GTRE; persistent efficiency; transient efficiency; subnational transfers; DRC; Sub-Saharan Africa qualité des dépenses publiques ; Budget Quality Index ; SFA/GTRE ; efficience persistante ; efficience variante ; transferts infranationaux ; RDC ; Afrique subsaharienne
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; D - Microeconomics > D2 - Production and Organizations > D24 - Production ; Cost ; Capital ; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity ; Capacity; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H50 - General; H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H72 - State and Local Budget and Expenditures; H - Public Economics > H7 - State and Local Government ; Intergovernmental Relations > H77 - Intergovernmental Relations ; Federalism ; Secession; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa

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