Doors and Engines: A Theory of Selection and Treatment Effects in European Integration, with Evidence from Greece and Türkiye

Okyar, Aida Idil (2026): Doors and Engines: A Theory of Selection and Treatment Effects in European Integration, with Evidence from Greece and Türkiye.

Abstract

This mixed-methods study examines whether economic development preceded or was strengthened by European Economic Community (EEC) membership through a comparative analysis of Greece and Türkiye. Drawing on economic growth, transformation, and institutional theories, it uses comparative, qualitative, and quantitative evidence to assess European integration's determinants and consequences. The findings indicate that Greece's accession depended mainly on democratic consolidation, institutional quality, and macroeconomic stability, not economic development, with long-term economic benefits emerging gradually after accession. Although full European Union (EU) membership offers larger economic gains than Türkiye's partial integration, these benefits depend on domestic institutional capacity and reform. Overall, the study concludes that accession was a political and institutional selection process, while membership acted as a conditional driver of long-term economic growth.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: European integration, European Union (EU), Europeanization, Economic development, Institutional quality, Structural transformation, Political conditionality, Türkiye, Greece
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F53 - International Agreements and Observance ; International Organizations; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O19 - International Linkages to Development ; Role of International Organizations; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O43 - Institutions and Growth; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P16 - Political Economy

References

Aydın-Düzgit, S. (2023). Authoritarian middle powers and the liberal order: Turkey's contestation of the EU. International Affairs, 99(6), 2319-2337. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiad225

Bölükbaşı, H. T., Ertuğal, E., & Özçurumez, S. (2010). The impact of the EU on Turkey: Toward streamlining Europeanisation as a research programme. European Political Science, 9(4), 464-480. https://doi.org/10.1057/eps.2010.79

Campos, N. F., Coricelli, F., & Moretti, L. (2019). Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe. Journal of Monetary Economics, 103, 88-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.08.001

Çalışkan, K. (2018). Toward a new political regime in Turkey: From competitive toward full authoritarianism. New Perspectives on Turkey, 58, 5-33. https://doi.org/10.1017/npt.2018.10

Dreyer, J. K., & Schmid, P. A. (2017). Growth effects of EU and EZ memberships: Empirical findings from the first 15 years of the Euro. Economic Modelling, 67, 45-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.007

Eldem, T. (2013). The end of Turkey's Europeanization? Turkish Policy Quarterly, 12(1), 125-135.

Esen, B., & Gümüşçü, S. (2016). Rising competitive authoritarianism in Turkey. Third World Quarterly, 37(9), 1581-1606. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2015.1135732

Eurostat. (2004). Report by Eurostat on the revision of the Greek government deficit and debt figures. European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/4187653/5765001/GREECE-EN.PDF

Fitzgerald, M. (2010, November 18). Turkey stresses accession benefits for EU. The Irish Times. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/turkey-stresses-accession-benefits-for-eu-1.678288

Grigoriadis, I. N. (2008). On the Europeanization of minority rights protection: Comparing the cases of Greece and Turkey. Mediterranean Politics, 13(1), 23-41. https://doi.org/10.1080/13629390701862574

Harrison, G. W., Rutherford, T. F., & Tarr, D. G. (1997). Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union. European Economic Review, 41(3-5), 861-870. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00043-3

Henrekson, M., Torstensson, J., & Torstensson, R. (1997). Growth effects of European integration. European Economic Review, 41(8), 1537-1557. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00063-9

Hisamoğlu, E. (2014). EU membership, institutions and growth: The case of Turkey. Economic Modelling, 38, 211-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.12.003

Karaguesian, J., & Chandralal, N. (2026a). Geopolitics and economic development [PowerPoint slides]. myCourses, McGill University.

Karaguesian, J., & Chandralal, N. (2026b). Introduction to development economics [PowerPoint slides]. myCourses, McGill University.

Karaguesian, J., & Montelpare, J. (2026a). Methodology and measurement [PowerPoint slides]. myCourses, McGill University.

Karaguesian, J., & Montelpare, J. (2026b). Neoliberal state and tech diffusion models [PowerPoint slides]. myCourses, McGill University.

Karamouzi, E. (2015). A strategy for Greece: Democratization and European integration, 1974-1975. Cahiers de la Méditerranée, 90, 11-24. https://doi.org/10.4000/cdlm.7858

Larsen, S. R. (2023). Imagining Europe. German Law Journal, 24, 705-717. https://doi.org/10.1017/glj.2023.37

Leounakis, N., & Sakellaris, P. (2014). Greek economic growth since 1960 (Working Paper No. 201416). Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics. https://www.dept.aueb.gr/sites/default/files/econ/dokimia/AllDP162014.pdf

Leparmentier, A., & Zecchini, L. (2002, November 8). Pour ou contre l'adhésion de la Turquie à l'Union européenne [For or against Turkey's accession to the European Union]. Le Monde. https://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2002/11/08/pour-ou-contre-l-adhesion-de-la-turquie-a-l-union-europeenne_297386_3214.html

Nafpliotis, A. (2018). From radicalism to pragmatism via Europe: PASOK’s stance vis-à-vis the EEC, 1977-1981. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 18(4), 509-528. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2018.1519686

O'Donohue, A. (2025). Law versus democracy: Judicial selection institutions, court capture, and democratic backsliding. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4465840

Oltheten, E., Pinteris, G., & Sougiannis, T. (2003). Greece in the European Union: Policy lessons from two decades of membership. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 43(5), 774-806. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1062-9769(03)00049-8

Oltheten, E., Sougiannis, T., Travlos, N., & Zarkos, S. (2013). Greece in the Eurozone: Lessons from a decade of experience. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 53(4), 317-335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2013.05.006

Öniş, Z. (2000). Luxembourg, Helsinki and beyond: Towards an interpretation of recent Turkey-EU relations. Government and Opposition, 35(4), 463-483. https://www.jstor.org/stable/44482913

Öniş, Z., & Kutlay, M. (2019). Global shifts and the limits of the EU's transformative power in the European periphery: Comparative perspectives from Hungary and Turkey. Government and Opposition, 54(2), 226-253. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2017.16

Somer, M. (2016). Understanding Turkey's democratic breakdown: Old vs. new and indigenous vs. global authoritarianism. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 16(4), 481-503. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2016.1246548