할당관세 정책이 농산물 소매가격에 미치는 인과적 영향

Kim, Youngmi and Jeong, Deokjae (2027): 할당관세 정책이 농산물 소매가격에 미치는 인과적 영향.

Abstract

본 연구는 「관세법」 제71조에 근거하여 운용되는 한국의 할당관세제도가 물가안정이라는 정부의 목적대로 농산물 소매가격을 하락시켰는지 인과적으로 검증한다. 표본은 2021년 1월~2025년 3월의 41개 농산물의 일별 소매가격 패널로, 할당관세로 인한 관세율 인하를 경험한 11개 품목(엽채류 ⋅ 근채류 6개, 과일류 5개)과 나머지 30개 품목으로 구성된다. 할당관세의 지정은 품목마다 시점이 어긋나고(시차 도입), 할당관세의 처치가 중단되었다가 다시 재개되며(비흡수형), 관세인하 폭도 품목마다 다르다(이질적 처치 강도). 흡수형 처치를 전제하는 기존 추정기법들은 이 구조에 적용될 수 없으므로, 본 연구는 국소투영 이중차분법을 최적의 방법으로 채택하여 관세 인하가 유지되는 동안의 효과(지속처치 모형)와 할당관세 지정 개시의 총효과(충격반응 모형)를 추정한다. 채소 그룹에서는 두 모형 모두 유의한 소매가격 하락이 없었던 반면, 과일 그룹에서는 관세 인하 1%p당 할당관세 개시 150일 후에 약 -0.78%(지속처치), 약 250~273일 후에 -0.49 ~ -0.55%(충격반응)의 하락이 나타났다. 따라서 큰 정책시행비용이 들어가는 할당관세는 효과가 식별되지 않은 채소류를 지양하고 과일류에 집중할 때 행정비용 절감과 물가안정을 함께 달성할 수 있다.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The Causal Effects of Korea's Quota Tariff Policy on Agricultural Product Retail Prices
• Language: Korean
• Keywords: 할당관세, 물가안정, 국소투영 차분-차분, 관세 전가율, 농업 정책
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade

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