Dons, prêts et cycles budgétaires : une analyse comparative des stabilisateurs automatiques et de la discrétion en zone Franc.

MEKA’A, Cosmas Bernard and MANGA ENGAMA, Etgard and NNAKANE, Jouvelle Marbella (2026): Dons, prêts et cycles budgétaires : une analyse comparative des stabilisateurs automatiques et de la discrétion en zone Franc.

Abstract

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of concessional public debt (CPD) and grants on the cyclicality of fiscal policy in the Franc Zone from 1994 to 2020. Using pooled mean group (PMG) estimators with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, the main findings show that CPD is systematically associated with procyclicality, for both the discretionary component and automatic stabilizers. Conversely, grants tend to have a countercyclical effect, mainly through automatic stabilizers. ressource distribution equality favors countercyclicality, while corruption reinforces procyclicality. These results imply that aid modalities influence fiscal space. They suggest prioritizing grants for social spending, relaxing loan conditionalities during recessions, and strengthening institutions.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Grants, Loans, and Fiscal Cycles: A Comparative Analysis of Automatic Stabilizers and Discretionary Policy in the Franc Zone.
• Language: French
• Keywords: Cyclicité, discrétionnaire, stabilisateur automatique, dynamique
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F35 - Foreign Aid; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O19 - International Linkages to Development ; Role of International Organizations

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