Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos

Reinhart, Carmen and Kaminsky, Graciela (2000): Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos. Published in: Sistemas Financieros ante la Globalización (2000): pp. 63-110.

Abstract

In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis--the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows and accompanied by an overvalued currency.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: crisis financieraso flujos de capital sis bancos crisis monetarias tipo de cambio credito
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F40 - General; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F30 - General

References

American Banker, varios numeros.

Blanco, H., y Garber, P. M. (1986): Recurrent Devaluations and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso, Journal of Political Economy, febrero, 94 (1), pp. 148-166.

Calomiris, Ch. W., y Gorton, G. (1991): The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation, en R. Glenn Hubbard (ed.), Financial Markets and Financial Crises, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, pp. 109-173.

Calvo, G. A. (1995): Varieties of Capital-Market Crises, mimeo, University of Maryland.

Calvo, G. A.; Leiderman, L., y Reinhart, C. M. (1993): Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: The Role of External Factors, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, marzo, 4o (1), pp. 108-151.

Calvo, G. A., y Mendoza, E. (1996): Petty Crime and Cruel Punishment: Lessons from the Mexican Debacle, American Economic Review, mayo (Papers and Proceedings), 86 (2), pp. 17o-175.

Calvo, S., y Reinhart, C. M. (1996): Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?, en G. A. Calvo, M. Goldstein y E. Hochreiter (eds.), Private capital flows to emerging markets, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, pp. 151-171.

Caprio, G., Jr., y Klingebiel, D. (1996): Bank Insolvency: Bad Luck, Bad Policy, or Bad Banking?, en M. Bruno y B. Pleskovic (ed.), Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, Washington, DC: The World Bank, pp. 79-104.

Dfaz-Alejandro, C. (1985): Good-Bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Crash, Journal of Development Economics, febrero 1985, 19 (1-2), pp. 1-24.

Diebold, F., y Rudebusch, G. (1989): Scoring the Leading Indicators, Journal of Business, julio, 62 (3), pp. 369-391.

Dornbusch, R; Goldfajn, I., y Valdes, R. (1995): Currency Crises and Collapses, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, junio, (2), pp. 219-27o.

Edwards, S. (1989): Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment: Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Eichengreen, B.; Rose, A. K., y Wyplosz, C. (1996a): Contagious Currency Crises, Centre for Economic Policy Research (Londres), Discussion Paper num. 1453, agosto. Eichengreen, B.; Rose, A. K., Y Wyplosz, Ch. (1996b): Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks, Economic Policy, octubre 21 (21), pp. 249-312.

Emerging Market Indicators, Washington, DC: International Finance Corporation, varios numeros.

Frankel, J., y Rose, A. K. (1996): Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets, Journal of International Economics, noviembre 41 (3-4), pp. 351-368.

Galbis, V. (1993): High Real Interest Rates Under Financial Liberalization: Is There a Problem?, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper no. WP/9317, enero.

Goldfajn, Ilan, y Valdes, R (1995): Balance-of-Payments Crises and Capital Flows: the Role of Liquidity, mimeo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Gorton, G. (1998): Banking Panics and Business Cycles, Oxford Economic Papers, diciembre, 4o (4), pp. 751-781.

International Financial Statistics, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, varios numeros.

Kaminsky, G. L., y Leiderman, L. (1998): High Real Interest Rates in the Aftermath of Disinflation: Is it a Lack of Credibility?, Journal of Development Economics, 55 (1), pp. 191-214.

Kaminsky, G. L., y Reinhart, C. M. (1996): The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems, International Finance Discussion Paper num. 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, marzo.

Kindelberger, Ch. (1978): Manias, panics, and crashes, Nueva York: Basic Books.

Krugman, P. (1979): A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, agosto, 11 (3), pp. 311-325.

McKinnon, R 1., y Pill, H. (1996): Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: the Overborrowing Syndrome, en T. Ito y A. O. Krueger (eds.), Sistemas Financieros ante Globalización Financial deregulation and integration in East Asia, Chicago, Chicago University Press, pp. 7-42.

Miller, V. (1995): Central Bank Reactions to Banking Crises in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes, mimeo, Universite de Quebec a Montreal.

Mishkin, F. S. (1996): Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective, en M. Bruno y B. Pleskovic (ed.), Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, Washington, DC: The World Bank, pp. 29-62. Mishra, D. (1997): Political Determinants of Currency Crises: Theory and Evidence, mimeo, University of Maryland.

New York Times, varios numeros.

Obstfeld, M. (1994): The Logic of Currency Crises, National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, MA), Working Paper mim. 464o, febrero.

Obstfeld, M. (1996): Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features, European Economic Review, abril, 4o (1), pp. 1037-1047.

Reinhart, C. M., y Reinhart, V. R. (1996): Forecasting Turning Points in Canada, mimeo, International Monetary Fund, 1996.

Reinhart, C. M., y Vegh, C. A. (1996): Do Exchange Rate-Based Inflation Stabilizations Sow the Seeds of Their Own Destruction?, mimeo, International Monetary Fund.

Stock, J. H., y Watson, M. W (1989): New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators, NBER macroeconomics annual, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, pp. 351-394.

Stoker, J. (1994): Intermediation and the Business Cycle under a Specie Standard: The Role of the Gold Standard in English Financial Crises, 179o-185o, mimeo, University of Chicago, Chicago.

Sundararajan, v., y Baliño, T. (1991): Issues in Recent Banking Crises, en V. Sundararajan y T. Balifio (eds.), Banking crises: cases and issues, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, pp. 1-57.

Velasco, A. (1987): Financial Crises and Balance of Payments Crises: A Simple Model of the Southern Cone Experience, Journal of Development Economics, octubre, 27 (1-2), pp. 263-283.

Wall Street Journal, varios numeros.

World Development Indicators, Washington DC: The World Bank, varios numeros.