When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies

Reinhart, Carmen and Kaminsky, Graciela and Vegh, Carlos (2004): When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies. Published in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 (2005): pp. 11-53.

Abstract

Based on a sample of 104 countries, we document four key stylized facts regarding the interaction between capital flows, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. First, net capital inflows are procyclical (i.e., external borrowing increases in good times and falls in bad times) in most OECD and developing countries. Second, fiscal policy is procyclical (i.e., government spending increases in good times and falls in bad times) for the majority of developing countries. Third, for emerging markets, monetary policy appears to be procyclical (i.e., policy rates are lowered in good times and raised in bad times). Fourth, in developing countries – and particularly for emerging markets – periods of capital inflows are associated with expansionary macroeconomic policies and periods of capital outflows with contractionary macroeconomic policies. In such countries, therefore, when it rains, it does indeed pour.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: fiscal policy capital flows interest rates cycles monetary policy government spending growth
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F30 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E30 - General; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E60 - General

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