Halicioglu, Ferda (2008): Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament.
This is the latest version of this item.
Download (115kB) | Preview
The objective of this research is to provide a statistical measurement to predict the likely winners of international football tournaments with particular reference to the Euro 2008 football tournament. This research argues that there exists a positive relationship between the competitive balance and success in international football tournaments. The level of the competitive balance in a domestic football league is measured by the seasonal coefficients of variation (CV) of the end-of-season points. The CV values are employed as ranking indicators between the contesting countries in international football tournaments to predict the likely winners. The seasonal CV values are computed from the top divison football leagues of participating countries of Euro 1996, Euro 2000, Euro 2004, and Euro 2008, in order to rank and to predict the likely winner of these tournaments. The results indicate that the higher the level of domestic competition the better chance of winning an international football tournament. The CV ranking is also compared to UEFA ranking and to the odds of some well known bookmakers in predicting the likely winners of the Euro 2008 football tournament. On the basis of the overall results, this research predicts that the likely winners of the Euro 2008 football tournament would be France, Spain or Germany.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament|
|Keywords:||Competitive balance, Football, Ranking, UEFA, Sports forecasts.|
|Subjects:||L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services
H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
|Depositing User:||Ferda HALICIOGLU|
|Date Deposited:||07. Jun 2009 03:24|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 16:50|
Borland, J., and Macdonald, R., (2003) “Demand for sport. Oxford Review of Economic Policy”, Vol.19, No. 2, pp.479-501.
Buzzacchi, L., Symanski, S., and Valetti, T., M., (2003) “Equality of opportunity and equality of outcome: open leaques, closed leaques and competitive balance”, Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Vol.3, No.1, pp.167-186.
Cairns, J. A., (1988) “Outcome of uncertainty and the demand for football”, University of Aberdeen Department of Economics Discussion Paper, 88-02.
Cairns, J. A. (1988) “Outcome of uncertainty and the demand for football”. University of Aberdeen Department of Economics Discussion Paper, 88-02.
Cairns, J. A., Jennet, N., and Sloane, P. J., (1986) “The economics of professional team sports: a survey of theory and evidence”, Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp.3-81.
Eckard, W. (2003) “ANOVA-based competitive balance measure”, Journal of Sports Economics, Vol.4, No.1, pp.74-80.
Forrest, D., and Simmons, R., (2002) “Outcome uncertainty and attendance in sport: the case of English soccer”, The Statistician, Vol.51, No. 2, pp.229-241.
Fort, R. D., (2000) “European and north American sports economics differences”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 47, No.3, pp.431-435.
Goossens, K. (2006) “Competitive balance in European football: comparison by adapting measures: national measures of seasonal imbalance and top 3”, Rivista di
Diritto Economia Dello Sport, Vol. 2, No.2, pp.77-112. Groot, L. F.M., (2005) "European Football: Back to the 1950s". Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=726727
Halicioglu, F. (2006) “The impacts of football point systems on the competitive balance: evidence from some European football leagues”, Rivista di Diritto Economia Dello Sport, Vol. 2, No.2, pp.67-76.
Halicioglu, F., (2005a) “Can we predict the outcome of international football tournaments? The case of Euro 2000”, Dogus University Journal, Vol.6, No.1, pp.112-122.
Halicioglu, F. (2005b) “Forecasting the professional team sporting events: evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 football tournaments”, in International Research on Sports Economics and Production, (Ed.) G. Papanikos, pp. 95-11, ATINER, Athens.
Halicioglu, F. (1998) “The degree of competition in the European football leagues: a statistical approach”, “Sports in the City” Conference Proceedings, Sheffield Hallam University, Vol.1, pp.189-205.
Hoehn, T. and Szymanski, S. (2000) “The Americanization of European football”, Economic Policy, Vol.28, No.2, pp.205-240.
Humphreys, B., (2002) “Alternative measures of competitive balance in sporting leagues”, Journal of Sports Economics, Vol.3, No.1, pp.133-148.
Jenneth, N., (1984) “Attendances, uncertainty of outcome and policy in Scottish league football”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol.33, No.2, pp.176-198.
Koning, R. H., (2000) “Balance in competition in Dutch soccer”, The Statistician, Vol.49, No.2, pp.419-431.
Peel, D. A., and Thomas, D., (1988) “Outcome uncertainty and the demand for football: an analysis of match attendances in the English football league”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol.35, No.2, pp.242-249.
Quirk, J., and Fort, R. D. (1997) “Competitive balance in sports leagues” in Pay dirt: the business of professional team sports.New Jersey, Princeton University Press.
Sanderson, A. R., (2002) “The many dimensions of competitive balance”, Journal of Sports Economics, Vol.3, No.2, pp.204-228.
Sandy, R., Slone, P. J., and Rosentraub, M. S., (2004) The economics of sports: an international perspective. Basingstoke, Palgrave.
Sarkar, S. (2008) “Is UEFA right? Measuring competiteveness of domestic football leagues”. International Journal of Sport Management and Marketing, Vol. 3, No.4, pp.374-382.
Sloane, P. J., (1971) “The economics of professional football: the football club as utility maximiser”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol.18, No.1, pp.121-146.
Stefani, R. T., (1997) “Survey of the major world sports rating systems”, Applied Statistics, Vol.24, No.4, pp.635-646.
Szymanski, S., (2004) “The assessment: the economics of sport”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol.19, No.2, pp.467-477.
Syzmanski, S. (2003) “The economic design of sporting contest”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.41, No.4, pp.1137-1187.
Szymanski, S., (2001) “Income inequality, competitive balance and the attractiveness of team sports: some evidence and natural experiment from English soccer”, The Economic Journal, 111, pp. 69-84.
Utt, J. and Fort, R. (2002) “Pitfalls to measuring competitive balance with Gini-coefficients”, Journal of Sports Economics, Vol.3, No.4, pp.367-373.
Vrooman, J. (1996) “The baseball palyers’ labour market reconsidered”, Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 63, No.2, pp.339-360.
Zimbalist, A, (2002) “Competitive Balance in Sports League”, Journal of Sports Economics, Vol.3, No,1, pp.111-121.
Zimbalist, A. (2001). The economics of sport. London, Edward Elgar.
Available Versions of this Item
- Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament. (deposited 07. Jun 2009 03:24) [Currently Displayed]