Predicting gold ores price

Kitov, Ivan (2009): Predicting gold ores price.

Abstract

It was demonstrated that gold ores price can be predicted at a several year horizon. The prediction consists of three steps. First, we show that the difference between producer price index and the index for gold ores is characterized by the presence of sustainable mid-term trends. Second, the evolution of the difference is predicted at a five to ten-year horizon. Considering the PPI to be practically constant over the next decade, the above difference provides a direct prediction of the price index for gold ores.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: gold ores, prediction, PPI
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

References

Kitov, I. (2006a). Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA, Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, http://www.ecineq.org/milano/WP/ECINEQ2006-28.pdf

Kitov, I., (2006b). Exact prediction of inflation in the USA, MPRA Paper 2735, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2735/01/MPRA_paper_2735.pdf

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008). Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ), pp. 101-112.

Kitov, I., (2009). ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price, MPRA Paper 15334, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15334/01/MPRA_paper_15334.pdf

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009a). A fair price for motor fuel in the United States, MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15039/01/MPRA_paper_15039.pdf

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009b). Sustainable trends in producer price indices, Journal of Applied Research in Finances, (in press). (Working paper is available: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15194/01/MPRA_paper_15194.pdf)

Kitov, I., Kitov, O., Dolinskaya, S., (2007). Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA, MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2734/01/MPRA_paper_2734.pdf