Marcin, Piatkowski (2009): The Coming Golden Age of New Europe. Published in: Central Europe Policy Analysis Report No. 26 (1 October 2009): pp. 1-35.
Download (465kB) | Preview
New Europe has never had it so good. Its income, quality of life and level of happiness have never been closer to that of the developed countries in Western Europe. With its per capita income at an all-time high and the quality of life almost indistinguishable from developed countries, the region is well on its way to achieving a higher level of per capita income than most emerging market countries. New Europe’s true Golden Age shimmers on the horizon. Already a significant global player with a combined GDP about the same size as that of Brazil and Russia, New Europe not only has stronger economic fundamentals, but is also less vulnerable than other emerging markets to political, social and economic Black Swans, catastrophic events that could wipe out much of its economic progress. The Golden Age, however, will not arrive without an assist from policymakers. The economic crisis has shown that the current growth model based on growing consumption fueled by imported savings has been largely undermined. New models are needed to lessen reliance on domestic consumption in favor of higher exports and stepped-up productivity. To this end, New Europe should enhance incentives for saving, introduce counter-cyclical fiscal policies and increase spending on human capital and innovation. It should also increase labor participation, open borders to immigration and strengthen financial sector supervision. Finally, New Europe should adopt the euro as quickly as possible, at a competitive exchange rate, diversify exports and promote further European Union (EU) integration and enlargement. The crisis provides a good opportunity to implement needed change.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Coming Golden Age of New Europe|
|English Title:||The Coming Golden Age of New Europe|
|Keywords:||Central and Eastern Europe, transition, New Europe, economic growth, economic history|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
P - Economic Systems > P2 - Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies > P27 - Performance and Prospects
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O52 - Europe
N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations > N14 - Europe: 1913-
|Depositing User:||Marcin Piatkowski|
|Date Deposited:||25 Dec 2009 10:28|
|Last Modified:||18 Jan 2016 23:29|
Akerlof, G. and R. Shiller (2009) Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism.’ Princeton University Press.
Allard, C., N. Choueiri, S. Schadler, and R. Van Elkan (2008) ‘Macroeconomic Effects of EU Transfers in New Member States.’ IMF Working Paper 08/223, September. From: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08223.pdf
Barro, Robert J. (1996), Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study NBER Working Paper No. W5698. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=3422
Bergheim. S. (2005) “Global Growth Centers 2020,” Deutsche Bank Research, March 23.
Casiraghi, M., Giordano, R. and P. Tommasino (2009) "Behind public sector efficiency: the role of culture and institutions" in: The quality of public finances and economic growth edited by S. Barrios, L. Pench and A. Schaechter, European Commission, Occasional Paper No. 45. March.
Carone, G., Denis, C., Mc Morrow, K., Mourre, G. and Roeger, W. (2006), Long-Term Labour Productivity and GDP Projections for the EU25 Member States: A Production Function Framework. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=930421
Čihák, M. and W. Fonteyne (2009) ‘Five Years After: European Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States.’ IMF Working Paper 09/x. April.
EBRD (2007) Life in Transition: A Survey of People’s Experiences and Attitudes. Euopean Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Economist (2008) “Emerging Economies” Economics Focus, Jan 31st.
Economist, The (2009) ”A Special Report on Aging Populations.” 25 June.
Emmott, B. (2009) Rivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India, and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade, Mariner Books.
European Innovation Scorecard (2008). From: http://www.proinnoeurope. eu/EIS2008/website/docs/EIS_2008_Final_report.pdf
European Commission (2009) ‘Five Years of an Enlarged EU. Economic Achievements and Challenges,’ February.
Eurofund (2009) ‘Second European Quality of Life Survey – First Findings,” European Foundation for Improvement of Living and Working Conditions.
Fabrizio, S., Leigh, D. and A. Mody (2009) “The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective.” European Commission, Economic Papers 366. March.
Friedman, B. (2006) The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth. Vintage.
Fukuyama, F. (1996) Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity. Free Press.
Goldman Sachs (2007) BRICs and Beyond. Goldman Sachs International.
Hawkins, J. (2006), “The Concept of Competitiveness,” Treasury Working Paper, April, Australian Treasury.
IMF (2008) World Economic Outlook Database, October. From: www.imf.org
IMF (2009) Europe: Regional Economic Outlook. International Monetary Fund, May.
Kahanec, M. and K. Zimmermann (2009) “Migration in an enlarged EU: A challenging solution?” European Commission, Economic Papers 363, March.
Keereman, F., S. Steinlein and I. P. Székely (2009) “Five Years of an Enlarged EU. Macro-financial stability,” Presentation at the conference on “EU Enlargement – 5 Years After,” Prague, 2 March, 2009. From: http://www.eu2009.cz/event/1/302/
Kolodko, G.W. (2010) The World on the Move, Columbia University Press, forthcoming.
Kolodko, G.W. (2000) From Shock to Therapy: The Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation, Oxford University Press, 457 pp.
Layard, R. (2003) “Happiness: Has Social Science a Clue?” Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures 2002/3. From: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/events/lectures/layard/RL030303.pdf
Lucas, R. (1988) ‘On the mechanics of economic development.’ Journal of Monetary Economics, vol 22, no. 1, pp 3-42.
Luengnaruemitchai, P. and Schadler, S. (2007), Do Economists’ and Financial Markets’ Perspectives on the New Members of the EU differ?, IMF Working Paper, No. 07/65, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.
Maddison, A. (2003), The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Development Centre Studies, OECD, Paris. From: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/other_books/appendix_B.pdf
North, D. (1990) Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance. New York: Cambridge University Press.
National Bank of Poland (2009) “Raport na temat pełnego uczestnictwa Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej.”
OECD (2006), “OECD PISA PISA 2006: Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World.. From: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/15/13/39725224.pdf
Piatkowski, M. (2009) “Konkurencja podatkowa i jej implikacje dla Europy Srodkowo- Wschodniej,” Ekonomista, forthcoming.
Piatkowski, M. (2008) ‘Time to loosen criteria for euro adoption,’ Financial Times, December 17.
Piatkowski, M. and K. Rybinski (2009) ‘Let’s roll out the euro to the whole Union,” Financial Times, June 11.
Piatkowski, M., and M. Jarmuzek (2008) ‘Zero corporate income tax in Moldova: Tax Competition and its Implications for Eastern Europe.’ IMF Working Paper 8/203, International Monetary Fund, August.
Poncet, S. (2006), “The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050.” CEPII Working Paper 2006-16.
Putnam, R. (1993), Making democracy work, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
PWC (2008) ”Beyond the BRICs: Updated Global Growth Projections to 2050.” From: http://www.pwc.co.uk/pdf/Beyond_the_BRICs.pdf
Radzikowski, M. and K. Rybiński (2007) ”Achieving Sustainable Growth: Will New Europe Fly or Crawl in the 21st Century Global Knowledge Economy,” in Nadolny A. T. Schauer (eds.) The Future of Europe. Sustainable Development and Economic Growth? Vienna.
Rapacki, R. and M. Prochniak (2009) “The EU Enlargement and Economic Growth in the CEE New Member States,” European Commission, Economic Papers 367, March.
Rodrik, D. (2008), “The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth”, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.
Rosenberg, C. and R. Sierhej (2007) ‘Interpreting EU Funds Data for Macroeconomic Analysis in the New Member States,” IMF Working Paper 07/77, April.
Rybinski, K., P. Opala and M. Hołda (2008), The Gordian Knots of the 21st century, Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego, Warsaw.
Schadler, S. , Mody, A., Abiad, A, and D. Leigh (2006) ‘Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union’, IMF Occasional Paper 252. Sen, A. (2000) Development as Freedom, Anchor. 406pp.
Van Ark, Bart and Marcin Piatkowski (2009) ‘Productivity, Innovation and ICT in Old and New Europe,’ in: D. W. Jorgenson (ed.) The Economics of Productivity, London: Edward Elgar, p.224-279.
Varga, J. and Veld, J. in’t (2009) “A model-based assessment of the macroeconomic impact of EU structural funds on the new Member States, European Commission, Economic Papers 371, March.
Vartia, P. and T. Nikinmaa (2006) “What Do Competitiveness Comparisons Tell Us.” http://etla.fi/files/1255_FES_04_4_what_do_competitiveness_comparisons_tell_us.pdf
White, A. (2007) ‘A Global Projection of Subjective Well-being: A Challenge. To Positive Psychology?’ Psychtalk 56, 17-20. From: http://www.le.ac.uk/users/aw57/world/sample.html
WIDER (2008) ‘World Income Inequality Database V2.0c May 2008.” World Institute for Development Economics Research. From: http://www.wider.unu.edu/research/Database/en_GB/database/
Wilson, D. and R. Purushothaman (2003) ‘Dreaming with BRICs. The Path to 2050.’ Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper 99.
World Bank (2006) World Development Report 2006: Equity and Development. World Bank. World Intellectual Property Organization (2009). From: http://www.wipo.int/pressroom/en/articles/2009/article_0002.html
Zsoldos, I. and A. Zadornova (2008) ‘New EU Member States – a Fifth BRIC?,” Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 173, September 28.