Regional convergence in Italy: time series approaches

De Siano, Rita and D'Uva, Marcella (2009): Regional convergence in Italy: time series approaches.

Abstract

This paper investigates the evolution of the gap between Italian regions and Italy as a whole during the period 1980-2007. We tested for the presence of the stochastic and β-convergence hypotheses using different time series approaches. The former was studied, first, for all the sample period and then, with an exogenous instantaneous break in the series. The presence of β-convergence, instead, was estimated considering a known and an unknown trend break date model. Our results show that most of the regions does not converge in an “actual” way, since they do not present a stochastic and β convergence simultaneously.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: β-convergence; stochastic convergence; time series approach; regional convergence
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models ; Other Models; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

References

Arbia, G., Basile, R., and Piras, G. (2005) Using Spatial Panel Data in Modelling Regional Growth and Convergence, Istituto di Studi e Analisi Economica,Working paper no. 55.

Azariadis, C. and Drazen, A. (1990) Threshold externalities in economic development, Quarterly Journal of Economics 105, 501-26.

Barro, R. J., (1991) Economic growth in a cross section of countries, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407-433.

Battisti M, Di Vaio G., (2008), A spatially filtered misture of β-convergence regressions for EU regions, 1980-2002, Empirical Economics, 34 (1), 105-121

Baumol, W.J. (1986) Productivity growth, convergence and welfare: what the long run data show, American Economic Review, 76, 1072-1085.

Ben-David, D. (1994) Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies, unpublished manuscript, University of Houston, Ben-Gurion University and CEPR.

Bernard A.B., Durlauf S.N., (1995) Convergence in international output, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 97-108.

Bianchi, C, Menegatti, M., (2007) On the Potential Pitfalls in Estimating Beta- Convergence by Means of Pooled and Panel Data, Applied Economic Letters, 14 (13-15), 963-67.

Campbell, J.Y., Perron, P. (1991) What macroeconomists should know about unit roots, in Blanchard O.J. and Fischer S. eds NBER macroeconomics annual 1991, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 141-201.

Carlino, G.A. and Mills, L.O. (1993) Are US Regional Incomes Converging? A Time Series Analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics 32, 335-346.

Cellini, R. Scorcu, A.E. (1995) How Many Italies? What Data Show about Growth and Convergence across Italian Regions, 1970-1991. Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Università di Bologna, WP no. 215.

D’Amato, M. Pistoresi, B. (1997) Statistical Evidence on Regional Cohesion in Italy, Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia vol. 56 (3-4), 211-34.

De Siano, R. and D’Uva, M. (2008) β-convergence in Italy using a trend break date model, The Empirical Economic Letters 7 (6), pp.589-596.

De Siano, R. and D’Uva, M. (2006) Club convergence in European regions, Applied Economic Letters, 13, no.9, July, 569-574.

Dickey D.A. and Fuller W.A. (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of The American Statistical Association 74, 427-431.

Durlauf, S. N., Johnson, P., and Temple, J. (2005) Growth econometrics, Handbook of Economic Growth, P. Aghion and S. N. Durlauf, eds., North-Holland, Amsterdam.

Eckey H.F., Turck M. (2007) Convergence of EU-Regions: A Literature Report, Investigaciones Regionales, 10, 5-32.

Evans P., (1998) Using panel data to evaluate growth theories, International Economic Review, 39, 295-306.

Friedman M., (1994) Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?, Journal of Economic Literature 30, 2129–2132.

Galvao A.F.Jr., Gomes F.A. Reis., (2007) Convergence or Divergence in Latin America? A TimeSeries Analysis, Applied Economics, 39 (10-12), 1353-1360.

Islam, N. (1995) Growth empirics: a panel data approach, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 1127-1140.

Islam, N. (2003) What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?, Journal of Economic Surveys 17 (issue 3), 309-362.

Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips ,P.C.B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992) Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure are We that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?, Journal of Econometrics 54, 159-178.

Loewy, M.B., Papell, D.H. (1996) Are US regional incomes converging? Some further evidence, Journal of Monetary Economics 38, 587-598.

Maeso-Fernandez, F. (2003) A time series approach to β-convergence, Applied Economics 35, 1133-1146.

Mankiw N.G., Romer D. and Weil D.N. (1992) A contribution to the empirics of economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407-437.

Ng, S., Perron, P. (1995) Unit roots tests in ARMA models with data dependent methods for the selection of the truncation lag, Journal of the American Statistical Association 90, 268-281.

Park J.Y. (1990) Testing for unit roots and cointegration by variable addition, in Fomby B., Rhodes F.(ed.) “Advances in Econometrics: Cointegration, Spurious regressions and Unit Root”, Jai Press, London, 107-134.

Park J.Y., Choi B. (1988) A new approach to testing for a unit root, CAE Working Paper 88-23 (Cornell University, Ithaca NY).

Perron, P. (1989) The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis, Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401.

Qing, Li (1999) Convergence Clubs: Some Further Evidence, Review of International Economics, 7, no.1, 59-67.

Quah, D.T. (1993) Galton’s Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 95: 427–443.

Quah, D. T. (1992) Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth, FMG Discussion Paper, dp154, London School of Economics and Political Science, London.

Solow R.M. (1956) A contribution to the theory of economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics 70, 65-94.

Vogelsang T.J, Tomljanovich M. (2002) Are U.S. regions converging? Using new econometric methods to examine old issues, Empirical Economics, 27, 49-72.

Vogelsang T.J. (1998) Trend function hypothesis testing in the presence of serial correlation, Econometrica 66, 123-148.

Vogelsang, T.J. (1997) Testing for a Shift in Trend when Serial Correlation is of Unknown Form, CAE Working Paper 97-11, Cornell University