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Construction d’un modèle macroéconomique keynésien avec économie informelle: un exercice de simulation

Slim, Sadri (2007): Construction d’un modèle macroéconomique keynésien avec économie informelle: un exercice de simulation.

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Abstract

The purpose of this article is to construct a Keynesian model which integrates the informal economy, based on a short-term analysis. From a structural system of 23 equations, we propose a simple modeling that allows for an assessment of the impact of illegal activities on the major macroeconomic variables. Stemmed from a simulation exercise, the results indicate that multiplier effects due to a unit variation of informal income are significant on the main national aggregates. Particularly, for an economy which exhibits a high rate of imports penetration, multiplier effects lead to a reduction of legal income, legal savings of firms and government, legal investment as well as legal importations.

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