Zhai, Fan and Lin, Tun and Byambadorj, Enerelt (2009): A general equilibrium analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the People's Republic of China.
Download (930kB) | Preview
This paper examines the potential long-term impacts of global climate change on agricultural production and trade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Using an economy-wide, global computable general equilibrium model, this paper simulates the scenarios of global agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to 2080. The results suggest that with the anticipated decline in agriculture share of gross domestic product, the impact of climate change on the PRC’s macro economy will be moderate. The food processing subsectors are predicted to bear the brunt of losses from the agricultural productivity changes caused by climate change. Production of some crop sectors (such as wheat), in contrast, is likely to expand due to increased demand from other regions of the world.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A general equilibrium analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the People's Republic of China|
|Keywords:||climate change; agriculture; China; general equilibrium|
|Subjects:||Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics
|Depositing User:||Tun Lin|
|Date Deposited:||07. Mar 2010 01:17|
|Last Modified:||04. Apr 2015 14:07|
Albersen, P., G. Fischer, M. Keyzer, and L. Sun. 2000. Estimation of Agricultural Production Relation in the LUC model for China. Interim Report IR-00-027. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
———. 2002. Estimation of Agricultural Production Relations in the LUC Model for China. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Armington, P. S. 1969. “A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production.” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 16:159–76.
Bosworth, B., and G. Chodorow-Reich. 2007. Saving and Demographic Change: The Global Dimension. Working Paper, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, No. 2007-2, May 2007.
Bruinsma, J., ed. 2003. World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030—An FAO Perspective. Earthscan, United Kingdom.
Cline, W. 1996. The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Comment. American Economic Review 86(5):1309–11.
———. 2007. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.
Darwin, R., M. Tsigas, J. Lewabdrowski, and A. Raneses. 1995. World Agriculture and Climate Change. Agricultural Economic Report No. 703, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC.
Fischer, G., M. Shah, F. N. Tubiello, and H. van Velthuizen. 2005. “Socio-economic and Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Integrated Assessment, 1990–2080.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 360:2067–83.
Garbaccio, R. F., M. S. Ho, and D. W. Jorgenson. 1998. Controlling Carbon Emissions in China. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.
He, J., K. Shen, and S. Xu. 2002. “A CGE Model for Carbon Tax and CO2 Emission Reduction Analysis.” Quantitative and Technical Economics Research 2002(10):39–47.
Hertel, T. W., ed. 1997. Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Huang, Y., and X. Wang. 2002. “Development of Environmental Computable General Equilibrium Model and Analysis.” China Population Resources and Environment 12(2):34–8.
IPCC. 2007a. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Work Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
———. 2007b. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Work Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Lee, H-L., T. Hertel, B. Sohngen, and N. Ramankutty. 2005. Towards an Integrated Land Use Database for Assessing the Potential for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation. GTAP Technical Papers 1900, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN.
Liu, H., X. Li, G. Fischer, and L. Sun. 2004. “Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Agriculture.” Climatic Change 65(1–2):125–48.
Mendelsohn, R., and A. Dinar. 1999. “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter?” World Bank Research Observer 14(2):277–93.
O’Connor, D., F. Zhai, K. Aunan, T. Berntsen, and H. Vennemo. 2003. Agricultural and Human Health Impacts of Climate Policy in China: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Guangdong. Technical Paper No. 206, OECD Development Centre, Paris.
Palatnik, R. R., and R. Roson. 2009. Climate Change Assessment and Agriculture in General Equilibrium Models: Alternative Modeling Strategies. Working Paper No. 08/WP/2009, Department of Economics, University of Ca’ Foscari, Venice.
Rimmer, M. T., and A. A. Powell. 1996. “An Implicitly Additive Demand System.” Applied Economics 28:1613–22.
Ronneberger, K., M. Berrittella, F. Bosello, and R. S. J. Tol. 2008. KLUM@GTAP: Spatially-Explicit, Biophysical Land Use in a Computable General Equilibrium Model. GTAP Working Paper No. 50, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN.
Shoven, J. B., and J. Whalley. 1992. Applying General Equilibrium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Tao, F., Y. Hayashi, Z. Zhang, T. Sakamoto, and M. Yokozawa. 2008. “Global Warming, Rice Production, and Water Use in China: Developing a Probabilistic Assessment.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 148:94–110.
van der Mensbrugghe, D. 2005. LINKAGE Technical Reference Document: Version 6.0. Mimeo, World Bank, Washington, DC.
Wang, C. 2003. Climate Change Policy Simulation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Dynamic CGE Model of China. Tsinghua University, Beijing.
Wang, J., R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, J. Huang, S. Rozelle, and L. Zhang. 2008a. Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture. Policy Research Working Paper No. 4470, World Bank, Washington, DC.
Wang, J., R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, and J. Huang. 2008b. How China’s Farmers Adapt to Climate Change. Policy Research Working Paper No. 4758, World Bank, Washington, DC.
Wei, T. 2002. The Impact of Imposing Carbon Tax to the Economy and Greenhouse Emission of China. World Economics and Politics 2002(8):47–9.
Wu, D., Q. Yu, C. Lu, and H. Hengsdijk. 2006. “Quantifying Production Potentials of Winter Wheat in the North China Plain.” European Journal of Agronomy 24:226–35.
Xiong, W., C. Declan, L. Erda, X. Yinlong, J. Hui, J. Jinhe, H. Ian, and L. Yan. 2009. “Future Cereal Production in China: The Interaction of Climate Change, Water Availability, and Socio-economic Scenarios.” Global Environment Change 19(1):34–44.
Yu, W., T. Hertel, P. Preckel, and J. Eales. 2004. “Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems.” Economic Modelling 21(1):99–129.
Zhang, Z. X. 2000. “Can China Afford to Commit Itself an Emissions Cap? An Economic and Political Analysis.” Energy Economics 22(6):587–614.