Theorem of existence of ruptures in probability scale. Preliminary short version.

Harin, Alexander (2010): Theorem of existence of ruptures in probability scale. Preliminary short version.

Abstract

The theorems of existence of the ruptures have been proved. The ruptures can exist near the borders of finite intervals and of the probability scale. The theorems can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: probability; economics; forecasting; planning; modeling; modelling; simulation; utility; decisions; uncertainty
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy; H - Public Economics > H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

References

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Harin, A. (2010-4) "Theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale. II." (in Russian) Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 22633, 2010.

Harin, А. (2010-3) "The theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale, as the mathematical basis of the principle of uncertain future" (in Russian) Tenth International Scientific School "Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in complex systems" – 2010).

Harin, А. (2010-2) "The ruptures in the probability scale and some problems of modelling" (in Russian) Third international conference "Mathematical Modelling of Social and Economical Dynamics" MMSED-2010.

Harin, А. (2010-1) "Theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale" (in Russian) Financial and Actuarial Mathematics and Eventoconverging Technologies FAMET'2010.

Harin, А. (2009) "Taking into account the border effects of noises – is it a new way to solve the problems of the utility theory?" (in Russian) First Russian economic congress (REC-2009).

Harin, А. (2008) "To the development of the general formula of forecasting" (in Russian) 51-th Scientific conference of MIPT – 2008 "Modern problems of fundamental and applied sciences".

Harin, А. (2007) "Principle of uncertain future, examples of its application in economics, potentials of its applications in theories of complex systems, in set theory, probability theory and logic" (in Russian) Seventh International Scientific School "Modelling and Analysis of Safety and Risk in complex systems" 2007.

Kahneman, D. and Thaler, R. (2006) "Anomalies: Utility Maximization and Experienced Utility" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20, #1, 221-234.