Mapa, Dennis S. and Balisacan, Arsenio M. and Corpuz, Jose Rowell T. (2010): Population Management should be mainstreamed in the Philippine Development Agenda.
Download (697kB) | Preview
The performance of the Philippine economy has been hindered by the country’s bourgeoning population due to its rapid population growth. For the last decade, the Philippines had the highest annual population growth rates in the Southeast Asian region. In 2009, it has become the second most populous country in the region with a population of more than 92 million, next only to Indonesia. Unfortunately, these have resulted to forgone economic growth, losing the chance to improve the poverty situation in the country. Thus, it is imperative to speed up the demographic transition in the country through proactive government population management policies aimed at harvesting the demographic dividends quickly. By performing simulation analyses on total fertility rate (TFR) under two scenarios, it was shown that the Philippines can hardly experience in the near future the Goldilock period, or the generation when fertility rate is neither too high nor too low, especially when the government does nothing to address the problem. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the Goldilock period will be reached by year 2030, or twenty years from now. In the second scenario where the government intervention targets only the households with unwanted fertility, the Goldilock period will be achieved ten years earlier, or in about 2020.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Population Management should be mainstreamed in the Philippine Development Agenda|
|Keywords:||Demographic Transition, Goldilock Period, Fertility Rate|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
|Depositing User:||Dennis S. Mapa|
|Date Deposited:||08. Jul 2010 19:23|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 05:15|
Bloom, D.E. and Williamson, J.G. (1997). “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia.” Working Paper 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, November 1997.
Mapa, D.S., Lucagbo, M.D.C. and Ignacio, C.S. (2010). Is Income Growth Enough to Reduce Fertility Rate in the Philippines? Empirical Evidence from Regional Panel Data. . A paper presented at the Philippine Population Association (PPA) Annual Scientific Conference on February 4 to 5, 2010 at the Heritage Hotel, Pasay City.
Mapa, D. S. and A. Balisacan (2004). “Quantifying the Impact of Population on Economic Growth and Poverty: The Philippines in an East Asian Context.” In: Population and Development in the Philippines: The Ties That Bind (Ed Sevilla, L.A.). AIM Policy Center, Makati City.
Mason, Andrew (2007). “Demographic Dividends: The Past, the Present and the Future.” In Mason, A. and Yamaguchi, Mitoshi (eds.). Population Change, Labor Markets and Sustainable Growth: Towards a New Economic Paradigm. ELSEVIER.
National Statistical Coordination Board (2006), Website, www.nscb.gov.ph
Philippine Daily Inquirer (2010). Interview with Health Secretary Esperanza Cabral by Jerry E. Esplanada , February 28, 2010 issue.
Sachs, J. D. (2008). Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet. Penguin Books.
The Economist (2009). “Falling fertility: How the population problem is solving itself.” October 31 to November 06, 2009 issue.