Early Warning System: Empirical Results from The Signals Approach

Reinhart, Carmen and Goldstein, Morris and Kaminsky, Graciela (2000): Early Warning System: Empirical Results from The Signals Approach. Published in: Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets , Institute for International Economics (2000)

Abstract

The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the robustness of their results as to the individual performance of the indicators. In particular, the sample size has been expanded by including 26 years worth of data for an additional five countries. Second, we examine the performance of many of the indicators that have been stressed in the financial press surrounding the coverage of the Asian crises, including both conventional indicators, such as the current account deficit, as well as indicators which stress the composition of international capital flows.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: crisis, early warning indicators, deficits, exchange rate, banking, credit
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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