Reinhart, Carmen and Reinhart, Vincent (2010): Diminished Expectations, Double Dips, and External Shocks: The Decade After the Fall.
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In our recent paper, (Reinhart and Reinhart, 2010) we examine the behavior of real GDP (levels and growth rates), unemployment, inflation, bank credit, and real estate prices in a twenty one-year window surrounding selected adverse global and country-specific shocks or events. In this note, we summarize some of the main findings of that paper, including that economic growth is notably slower in the decade following a macroeconomic disruption. We extend those results to provide evidence of several post-crisis “double dips” in the years following the crisis. A faltering of economic recovery is not uncommon after a severe financial shock, although this can often be ascribed to exogenous events.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Diminished Expectations, Double Dips, and External Shocks: The Decade After the Fall|
|Keywords:||recession, unemployment, financial crisis, growth, external shocks|
|Subjects:||N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
|Depositing User:||Carmen Reinhart|
|Date Deposited:||14. Sep 2010 11:49|
|Last Modified:||11. Feb 2013 18:40|
Kaminsky, Graciela L., and Carmen M. Reinhart, Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence From the Asian Crisis in Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger (eds.) Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the NBER, 2001), 73-99.
Reinhart, Carmen M. and Vincent R. Reinhart, After the Fall, NBER Working Paper 16334, September 2010, forthcoming in Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium Volume, Macroeconomic Challenges: The Decade Ahead at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 26-28, 2010.
Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2009). This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton Press).
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