Clark, Gregory and Cummins, Neil (2010): Malthus to Modernity: England’s First Fertility Transition, 1760-1800.
Download (344kB) | Preview
English fertility history is generally regarded as having been composed of two re-gimes: an era of unregulated marital fertility, from at least 1540 to 1890, then the modern era, with regulated marital fertility, lower for higher social classes. We show there were in fact three fertility regimes in England: a Malthusian regime which lasted from at least 1500 until 1780, where fertility was substantially higher for the rich, an intermediate regime from 1780 to 1890 with fertility undifferentiated by class, and finally the modern regime. Wealthy English men produced substantially fewer children within a generation of the onset of the Industrial Revolution, over 100 years before the classic demographic transition. At the same time the fertility of the poor increased. Determining what triggered this change, however, and why it coincided with the Industrial Revolution, will require further research.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Malthus to Modernity: England’s First Fertility Transition, 1760-1800|
|Keywords:||Demographic Transition in England|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth
N - Economic History > N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics
|Depositing User:||Gregory Clark|
|Date Deposited:||28. Sep 2010 10:15|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 22:18|
Becker, Gary, Kevin Murphy, and Robert Tamura. 1990. “Human Capital, Fertility and Economic Growth.” Journal of Political Economy, 98: S12-37.
Clark, Gregory. 2005a “The Condition of the Working-Class in England, 1209-2004” Journal of Political Economy, 113(6) (December, 2005): 1307-1340.
Clark, Gregory. 2005b “Human Capital, Fertility and the Industrial Revolution,” Journal of the European Economic Association, 3 (2-3): 505-515.
Clark, Gregory. 2007. A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.
Clark, Gregory. 2010. “The Macroeconomic Aggregates for England, 1209-2008.” Research in Economic History, 27, 51-140.
Clark, Gregory and Neil Cummins. 2009. “Urbanization, Mortality and Fertility in Malthusian England.” American Economic Review, 99(2) (May): 242-7.
Clark, Gregory, Joseph Cummins, and Brock Smith. 2010 “How rich was pre-industrial England?” Working Paper, University of California, Davis.
Clark, Gregory and Gillian Hamilton. 2006 “Survival of the Richest. The Malthusian Mechanism in Pre-Industrial England.” Journal of Economic History, 66(3) (September): 707-36.
Cummins, Neil J. A Comparative Analysis of the Relationship between Wealth and Fertility during the Demographic Transition: England and France. PHD Thesis London School of Economics, 2009.
Galor, Oded and David N. Weil. 1996. “The Gender Gap, Fertility and Growth.” American Economic Review, 86: 374-387.
Galor, Oded and David N. Weil. 2000. “Population, Technology and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond.” American Economic Review, 90: 806-828.
Galor, Oded and Omer Moav. 2002. “Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117: 1133-1192.
Great Britain Historical GIS. 2009. “English Administrative Counties, 1910 and English Ur-ban/Rural Areas 1910.” http://borders.edina.ac.uk/ukborders/action/restricted/textgeosearch.
General Registrar's Office. 1923. Fertility of Marriage, Part 2 Census of England and Wales, 1911. Vol. XIII, London: HMSO.
Hansen, G. and Prescott, Edward C. 2002. “Malthus to Solow.” American Economic Review,92(4): 1205-1217.
Hollingsworth, T. H. 1965. The Demography of the British Peerage. Supplement to Population Studies, v. 18, no. 2. London: Population Investigation Committee, London School of Economics.
Hughes, Austin l. 1986. “Reproductive Success and Occupational Class in Eighteenth Century Lancashire, England.” Social Biology, 33: 109-115.
Landers, John. 1993. Death and the Metropolis: Studies in the Demographic History of London, 1670-1830. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lucas, Robert E. 2002. “The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future” in Lectures on Economic Growth. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Garret, Eilidh et al. Changing Family Size in England and Wales: Place, Class and Dempgraphy, 1891-1911. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Jones, Larry E. and Michèle Tertilt. 2006. “An Economic History of the Relationship Between Occupation and Fertility – U.S. 1826-1960.” Working Paper, Stanford University.
Owens, A. Green, D.R., Bailey, C., and Kay, A.C. 2006. “A measure of worth: probate valuations, personal wealth and indebtedness in England, 1810-40” Historical Research 79 (205): 383–403.
Rubenstein, W.D. 1977. “Wealth, Elites and the Class Structure of Modern Britain.” Past and Present.
Scott, Susan and C. J. Duncan. 2000. “Interacting effects of nutrition and social class differentials on fertility and infant mortality in a pre-industrial population.” Population Studies, 54(1): 71-87.
Titelbaum, Michael S. 1984. The British Fertility Decline: Demographic Transition in the Crucible of the Industrial Revolution. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Van Bavel, Jan. 2002. “Detecting Stopping and Spacing Behavior in Historical Fertility Transitions: A Critical Review of Methods.” Working Paper, Department of Sociology, KU Leuven.
Wrigley, E.A 1969. Population and History.
Wrigley, E.A, and Schofield, R.S. 1981. The Population History of England 1541-1871. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Wrigley, E. A., R.S. Davies, J.E. Oeppen, and Roger Schofield. 1997. English Population History from Family Reconstitution, 1580-1837. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.