Daniel, Rascher and John Paul, Solmes (2007): Do Fans Want Close Contests? A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association. Published in: International Journal of Sport Finance , Vol. 2, (2007): pp. 130-141.
Download (94kB) | Preview
The National Basketball Association claims to sell entertainment. Part of that entertainment is close, competitive contests with uncertain outcomes. However, hometown fans want the home team to win. Hence, the optimal probability that the home team wins a game, from the perspective of maximizing demand, lays somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0. Using data from individual games for the 2001-02 season, this optimal probability was estimated to be approximately 0.66. Fans want their home team to have about twice the chance to win a game as the visiting team.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Do Fans Want Close Contests? A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association|
|Keywords:||uncertainty of outcome; basketball; linear regression; home court advantage; demand; attendance|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism
|Depositing User:||Daniel Rascher|
|Date Deposited:||12. Oct 2010 19:45|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 01:33|
Bailey, L. (2001, February 8). Five Roads to Redemption. Gauntlet: Undergraduate Students’ Newsweekly, Retrieved July 5, 2003, from http://gauntlet.ucalgary.ca/story/2517
Bird, P. J. (1982). The demand for league football. Applied Economics, 14, 637-649.
Bollinger, C., & Hotchkiss, J. (2003). The upside potential of hiring risky workers: Evidence from the baseball industry. Journal of Labor Economics, 21(4), 923-44.
Boyd, D. W., & Boyd, L. A. (1998). The home field advantage: Implications for the pricing of tickets to professional team sporting events. Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(2-3), 169-79.
Butler, M. R. (2002). Interleague play and baseball attendance. Journal of Sports Economics, 3(4), 320-34.
Demmert, H. G. (1973). The economics of professional sports. Lexington, MA.: Lexington Books.
Fort, R. D. (2002). Sports economics. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Fort, R. D. (2005). Inelastic sports pricing. Managerial and Decision Economics, 25(2), 87-94.
Fort, R. D., & Quirk, J. (1992). Pay dirt: The business of professional team sport. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Fort, R. D., & Quirk, J. (1995). Cross-subsidization, incentives, and outcomes in professional team sports leagues. Journal of Economic Literature, 33, 1265-1299.
Hausman, G. K., & Leonard, J. A. (1997). Superstars in the National Basketball Association: Economic value and policy. Journal of Labor Economics, 15(5), 586-624.
Hill, J. R., Madura, H., & Zuber, R. A. (1982). The short run demand for Major League Baseball. Atlantic Economic Journal, 31(2), 31-35.
Kahn, L. M., & Sherer, P. D. (1988). Racial differences in professional basketball players’ compensation. Journal of Labor Economics, 6, 40-61.
Kanazawa, M. T., & Funk, J. P. (2001). Racial ciscrimination in professional basketball: Evidence from Nielsen Ratings. Economic Inquiry, 39(4), 599-608.
Késenne, S., & Pauwels, W. (2006). Club objectives and ticket pricing in professional team sports. Eastern Economic Journal, 32(3), 549-560.
Knowles, G., Sherony, K., & Haupert, M. (1992). The demand for Major League Baseball: A test of the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. The American Economist, 36(2), 72-80.
Lago, U., Simmons, R., & Szymanski, S. (2006). The financial crisis in European football: An introduction. Journal of Sports Economics, 7(1), 3-12.
Leeds, M., & von Allmen, P. (2002). The economics of sports. Boston, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Liu, J. K., Li, Z. G., Wang, X. F., & Liu, Y. W. (2002). Study on the home court advantage in the CBA. Journal of Physical Education, 9(1), 117-119.
Neale, W. C. (1964). The peculiar economics of professional sports: A contribution to the theory of the firm in sporting competition and market competition. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 78(1), 1-14.
Neft, D. S., & Cohen, R. M. (1991). The sports encyclopedia: Pro basketball (4th ed.). New York, NY: St. Martin’s Press.
Noll, R. G. (1974). Attendance and price setting. In R. G. Noll (Ed.), Government and the sports business (pp. 115-158). Washington DC: The Brookings Institution.
Paul, R., & Weinbach, A. (2007). The uncertainty of outcome and scoring effects on Nielsen Ratings for Monday Night Football. Journal of Economics and Business, 59(3), 199-211.
Rascher, D. A. (1997). A model of a professional sports league. In W. Hendricks (Ed.), Advances in the economics of sport, Vol. 2. (pp. 27-76). Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.
Rascher, D. A. (1999). The optimal distribution of talent in Major League Baseball. In L. Hadley, E. Gustafson, & J. Fizel (Eds.), Sports economics: Current research (pp. 27-45). Westport, CT: Praeger Press.
Rascher, D. A. (2002). Competitive balance on the field and in the courts. For the Record, 13(2), 3-6.
Sanderson, A. R. (2002). The many dimensions of competitive balance. Journal of Sports Economics, 3(2), 204-228.
Schurr, K. T., Wittig, A. F., Ruble, V. E., & Ellen, A. S. (1987). Demographic and personality characteristics associated with persistent, occasional, and non-attendance of university male basketball games by college students. Journal of Sport Behavior, 11(1), 3-17.
Schwartz, J. M. (1973). Causes and effects of spectator sports. International Review of Sport Sociology, 34(8), 25-45.
Scully, G. W. (1974). Pay and performance in Major League Baseball. American Economic Review, 64(6), 917-930.
Siegfried, J., & Eisenberg, J. (1980). The demand for minor league baseball. Atlantic Economic Journal, 29, 59-69.
St.. John, A. (2003, May 9). By the numbers: Home sweat home. Wall Street Journal, p. W4.