Has the empire struck back? ‘new paradigm’ globalisation or return to classical imperialism?

Freeman, Alan (2000): Has the empire struck back? ‘new paradigm’ globalisation or return to classical imperialism? Published in: Albritton, R, Makoto Itoh, Richard Westra and Alan Zuege (eds) Phases of Capitalist Development: Booms, Crises, and Globalization, London: McMillan. No. ISBN 0 33375 316 X (June 2000): pp. 195-215.

Abstract

This article is a prepublication transcript of ‘Has the Empire Struck Back?’ in Albritton, R, Makoto Itoh, Richard Westra and Alan Zuege (eds) Phases of Capitalist Development: Booms, Crises, and Globalization, pp195-215. London: McMillan. ISBN 0 33375 316 X

The paper conducts an empirical examination of the current state of the world market with a view to assessing (and establishing the relative strengths and weaknesses of) two contrasting views: the first, that it is the outcome of a process of globalisation, in some sense, and the second, that it is explicable through the classical accounts of imperialism dating from the turn of the last century. It considers also the empirical relevance of Kondratieff’s and Schumpeter’s conception of ‘long waves’ of growth and accumulation.

It develops the distinction between endogenous and exogenous causes of decline and accumulation in the market and argues that they are connected to a prolonged secular trend towards income polarisation between blocs of nations characteristic of the operation of the market. It argues that whereas the declining phase of a long wave is endogenous and lawlike, recovery is exogenous and contingent, depending on the outcome of conscious political intervention. The key to the economic outcome of the present phase of capitalism is therefore the political relation between the main players

It argues that history has seen two quite distinct patterns of exogenously-constituted recovery from generalised crisis. The industrial revolution, and the post-WWII boom were ‘hegemonically-ordered’ yielding high global profit rates under a single hegemonic power (the UK in 1845, the US in 1945) which fuelled a general expansion even of its rivals, and yielding rising (if unequal) prosperity, relative peace, and political stability. 1890-1914 was different. The profit rate did not recover to previous levels, there was no clear hegemon, growing misery and barbarity over the immiserated parts of the world, and intense great power rivalry leading to the wars and revolutions that bestrode the twentieth century.

I argue that the evidence suggests the only possible basis of a new wave of economic expansion is a recovery more comparable with 1890-1914 than 1945-1965. The present period is one dominated by the steady but inexorable loss of US economic hegemony but with no clear alternative hegemon. This leads to an essentially unstable, warlike, and intractable period of competition for domination over sources of surplus profit. I call this a return to ‘classical imperialism’.

Keywords: Inequality, globalisation, poverty, Marx, unequal exchange, imperialism, value, TSSI, temporalism, development

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: The University of Greenwich
• Language: English
• Keywords: Inequality; globalisation; poverty; Marx; unequal exchange; imperialism; value; TSSI; temporalism; development
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O34 - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O24 - Trade Policy ; Factor Movement Policy ; Foreign Exchange Policy; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O10 - General; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies

References

Brenner, R. (1999) ‘The economics of Global Turbulence’ in New Left Review 229, May/June 1998 Bhagwati, J. (1993) ‘Aggressive Unilateralism: An Overview’, in J. Bhagwati and H. Patrick, eds., Aggressive Unilateralism (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press) Day, R. (1981) The ‘Crisis’ and the ‘Crash’ (London: New Left Books). Duménil and Lévy (1994) The U.S. Economy since the Civil War Paris: CEPREMAP. Data are taken from the authors’ Sources and Construction of the Series (available from the authors at [e-mail]) Freeman, A. (1996) ‘The Poverty of Nations’, Links, 7, July-October. ______ (1997) ‘Time, the Value of Money and the Quantification of Value’, presented to the 1997 conference of the Eastern Economic Association (available at http://www.greenwwich.ac.uk/~fa03). ______ (1998) ‘The Emperor’s Tailor: The Economists and the Crash of ‘98’, presented to the 1998 conference of the Eastern Economic Association (available at http://www.greenwwich.ac.uk/~fa03). ______ (2000) ‘Crisis and the Poverty of Nations: Two Market Products Which Value Explains Better’, Forthcoming in Historical Materialism 5 Freeman, A. and Carchedi, G. (1995) Marx and Non-Equilibrium Economics (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar). Goodwin, R. (1982), Essays in Economic Dynamics. London:Macmillan. Harrod, R.F. (1937), An Essay on Dynamics. Hoekman, B. and Kostecki, M. (1995) Political Economy of the World Economy: From GATT to WTO (Oxford: Oxford University Press). Maddison, A. (1995) Monitoring the World Economy, 1820-1992 (Paris: OECD). Maldonado-Filho, E. (1997) ‘The Circuit of Industrial Capital, Price Changes and the Profit Rate’, presented to the 1997 conference of the Eastern Economic Association (available at http://www.greenwwich.ac.uk/~fa03) Mandel, E. (1975) Late Capitalism (London: New Left Books). Marx, K(1976) Capital Volume 1: Harmondsworth: Penguin Mihevc (1995) The Market Tells them So. London: Zed Books. Okishio, Nobuo (1961), ‘Technical Changes and the Rate of Profit’, Kobe University Economic Review 7. pp 86-99. Pritchett, L. (1997) ‘Divergence, Big Time’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer. Steindl (1952) Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism (Oxford: Blackwell). Stern, N. (1996) ‘Growth Theories, Old and New, and the Role of Agriculture in Economic Development’, FAO Economic and Social Development Paper #136 (Rome: FAO). Todaro, M.P. (1994) Economic Development (London: Longman). Trotsky (1923) ‘O Krivoi Kapitalisticheskovo Razvitiya’ (‘The Curve of capitalist Development’), Vestnik Sotsialisticheskoi Akademii, 4, April-July. Cited in Day, op cit. World Bank (1995) World Development Indicators (Washington: World Bank).