Sinha, Pankaj and Gupta, Sushant and Randev, Nakul (2010): Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession.
Download (1MB) | Preview
This paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post recession by analyzing various macro economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modeling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rate will not change much during the same period.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession|
|English Title:||Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession|
|Keywords:||ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Indian Economy, Forecasting|
|Subjects:||B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925 > B22 - Macroeconomics
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics
|Depositing User:||Pankaj Sinha|
|Date Deposited:||08. Nov 2010 22:23|
|Last Modified:||30. Dec 2015 19:21|
Adi Khan Miankel, Shandre Mugan Thangavelu and Kaliappa Kalirajan (2009). “Foeign Direct Investment, Exports and Economic Growth in South Asia and Selected Emerging countries: A Multivariate VAR Analysis”. Center for Contemporary Asian Studies. CCAS Working paper No. 23.
Chakraborty, Lekha (2008). "Fiscal Deficit, Capital Formation, and Crowding Out: Evidence From India." University of Connecticut. <http://ideas.repec.org/p/npf/wpaper/06-43.html>.
Garg, Deepak, Madhuri Agrawal, and Rajesh R. K. (2005). "Causal Relationships between Industrial Production, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate: Evidence on India." Social Sciences Research Network, Aug. 2005. <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=871744>.
Keshava, S. R. (2008). "The Effect of FDI on India and Chinese Economy: A Comparative Analysis." Social Sciences Research Network. <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1089964>.
Mishra, P.K., K.B.Das and B.B.Pradhan (2010). “Foreign Institutional Investments and Real Economic Growth in India: A Causality Test.” International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Issue 41.
Mohan, Rakesh (2008). “Growth Record of the Indian Economy, 1950-2008: A Story of Sustained Savings and Investment.” Economic and Political Weekly.
Ahmed, Shahid (2008). “Aggregate Economic Variables and Stock Markets in India.” International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Issue 14.
Singh, Saurabh, and V. P. Arora (2010). "Interest Rates and Stock Movements in Three Major Asian Countries-India, China and Japan." Social Sciences Research Network. <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1574201>.
Subbarao, Duvvuri (2008). “The global financial turmoil and challenges for the Indian economy”. Bank for International Settlements. <http://www.bis.org/review/r081222a.pdf>.
Cavoli, Tony and Ramkishen S Rajan (2006). “The extent of exchange rate flexibility in india: Basket pegger or closet us dollar pegger?.” Working papers eSocialSciences.com (http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:424).
Ugam Raj Daga, Rituparna Das and Bhishma Maheshwari (2004). “Estimation, Analysis and Projection of India’s GDP”. Schoasticus, Vol. 1, No. 2.
Tripathi, Vanita (2009). “Company Fundamentals and Equity Returns in India.” International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Issue 29 (2009).
Virmani, Arvind (2009). "Macro-economic Management of the Indian Economy: Capital Flows, Interest Rates, and Inflation." Routledge. <http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17520840902726482>.