Colombier, Carsten and Weber, Werner (2009): Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis. Forthcoming in: International Journal of Health Planning and Management (2010)
Download (141kB) | Preview
This paper contributes to the debate about the impact of population ageing on health care expenditure. Some health economists claim that the commonly presumed impact of population ageing is a "red herring". Based on empirical studies these authors conclude that proximity to death and not age per se matters. In projecting health care expenditure for Switzerland the present study provides evidence that proximity to death is of marginal importance. These projections suggest that population ageing is still the most important age-related cost-driver. Moreover, morbidity outweighs mortality as a factor of health-care expenditure. But most vital are non-demographic drivers such as medical progress. Thus, from the point of view of cost-benefit analysis one should even ignore costs of dying when projecting health care expenditure. Moreover, regressions might overestimate proximity to death due to systematic biases. Finally, ever-increasing health-care expenditure can be slowed down by appropriate policy measures.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis|
|Keywords:||health-care expenditure; population ageing; public health-care budget; proximity to death, morbidity|
|Subjects:||H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H51 - Government Expenditures and Health
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I19 - Other
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
|Depositing User:||Carsten Colombier|
|Date Deposited:||16. Nov 2010 19:17|
|Last Modified:||11. Aug 2015 12:00|
Breyer, F, Felder St. 2006. Life expectancy and health care expenditures: a new calculation for germany using the costs of dying. Health Policy 75: 178-186.
Baumol, W J. 1993. Health Care, Education and the cost disease: a looming crisis for public choice, Public Choice 77: 17-28.
Colombier, C. and Weber, W. 2008. Ausgabenprojektionen für das Gesundheitswesen bis 2050. Working Paper of the Group of Economic Advisers No. 10, Federal Finance Administration, Bern, Switzerland.
Dreger, Ch, Reimers, H - E. 2005. Health care expenditures in oecd countries: a panel unit root and cointegration analysis. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies 2: 5-20.
European Commission (EC). 2006. Long-term sustainability of public finances in the european union. European Economy No. 4/06. EC, Brussels.
Federal Statistical Office (FSO). 2006. Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung 2005-2050. Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
Getzen, Th E. 2000. Health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury: applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditure. Journal of Health Economics 19: 259-270.
Gray, A. 2005. Population ageing and health care expenditure. Ageing Horizons Issue No. 2: 15-20.
Hall, R E, Jones, C I. 2005. The value of life and the rise in health spending. NBER Working Paper No. 10737. Cambridge, MA.
Hartwig, J. 2008. What drives health care expenditure? - Baumol's model of unbalanced growth revisited. Journal of Health Economics 27: 603 - 623.
Hsiao, W, Heller, P S. 2007. What should macroeconomists know about health care policy?, Working Paper No. 07/13. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C..
Oliveira Martins, J, De la Maisonneuve, Ch, Bjørnerud, S. 2006. Projecting oecd health and long-term care expenditures: what are the main drivers? Economics Department Working Paper No. 477. OECD, Paris.
Productivity Commission Australia (PCA). 2005. Modelling the aggregate impact of medical technology on expenditure - Technical Paper 1. In Impacts of Advances in Medical Technology in Australia. Research Report, PCA, Melbourne. Accessed at: http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/17182/technicalpapers.pdf.
Reinhardt, U E. 2003. Does the aging of the population really drive the demand for health care? Health Affairs 22: 27-39.
Salas, Ch, Raftery, J P. 2001. Econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure. Health Economics 10: 669-671.
Stearns, S C, Norton, E C. 2004. Time to include time to death? the future of health care expenditure predictions. Health Economics 13: 315 - 327.
Vuilleumier, M, Pellegrini, S, Jeanrenaud, C. 2007. Déterminants et évolution des coûts du système de santé en Suisse, Revue de la littérature et projections à l'horizon 2030. Federal Statistical Office (FSO), Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
Weaver, F, Jaccard Ruedin, H, Pellegrini, S, Jeanrenaud, C. 2008. Les coûts des soins de longue durée d'ici à 2030 en Suisse. Working Paper no. 34. Swiss Health Observatory, Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
Werblow, A, Felder, St, Zweifel P. 2007. Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'? Health Economics 16: 1109-1126.
Westerhout, W M T. 2006. Does ageing call for a reform of the health care sector?, CESifo Economic Studies 52: 1-31.
Zweifel, P, Felder, St, Meiers, M. 1999. Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a 'red herring'? Health Economics 8: 485-496.
Zweifel, P, Felder, St, Werblow, A. 2004. Population ageing and health care expenditure: new evidence on the 'red herrings'. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 29: 652-666.