Boschi, Melisso and Girardi, Alessandro (2009): The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle.
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This paper quantifies the relative contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to the fluctuation of domestic output in six key Latin American (LA) countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Using quarterly data over the period 1980:1-2003:4, a multi-variate, multi- country time series model was estimated to study the economic interdependence among LA countries and, in addition, between each of them and the three world largest industrial economies: the US, the Euro Area and Japan. Falsifying a common suspicion, it is shown that the proportion of LA countries' domestic output variability explained by industrial countries'factors is modest. By contrast, domestic and regional factors account for the main share of output variability at all simulation horizons. The implications for the choice of the exchange rate regime are also discussed.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle|
|Keywords:||International business cycle, Latin America, exchange rate regimes, Global VAR methodology, VECM|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange
|Depositing User:||Melisso Boschi|
|Date Deposited:||17. Jan 2011 21:15|
|Last Modified:||24. Feb 2013 23:43|
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