Roland-Holst, David and Tarp, Finn and Dinh, Van An and Thanh, Vo Tri and Huong, Pham Lan and Dinh, Hien Minh (2002): Vietnam’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Economic Projections to 2020. Published in:
Download (528kB) | Preview
This study presents a set of assessments of the long term economic effects of Vietnam’s accession to the WTO. Generally speaking, our results indicate that Vietnam would benefit from accelerating its participation in more open multilateralism. However, it is also clear from our analysis that these benefits will remain modest in the absence of comprehensive and complementary domestic economic reforms. Passive external liberalization, even when coupled with determined domestic reform, is inferior to WTO participation combined with negotiated market access and other activist multilateral agreements. Finally, our analysis shows that capital insufficiency is a very serious constraint on Vietnamese economic growth and diversification. Capital market reform can play an essential role in dynamic and sustained economic development for the country.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Vietnam’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Economic Projections to 2020|
|Keywords:||Vietnam, WTO, Trade|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations
A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics
|Depositing User:||Finn Tarp|
|Date Deposited:||29. Mar 2011 10:55|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 15:25|
Armington, Paul (1969), “A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 16, pp. 159-178.
Burniaux, Jean-Marc, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (1994), “The RUNS Global Trade Model,” Economic & Financial Modelling, Autumn/Winter, pp. 161-282.
Collado, Juan Carlos, David Roland-Holst and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (1995), “Latin America Employment Prospects in a More Liberal Trading Environment,” in Social Tensions, Job Creation and Economic Policy in Latin America, David Turnham, Colm Foy and Guillermo Larrain, editors, OECD, Paris.
de Melo, Jaime, and Sherman Robinson (1989), “Product Differentiation and the Treatment of Foreign Trade in Computable General Equilibrium Models of Small Economies,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 27, pp. 47-67.
Deaton, Angus, and John Muellbauer (1980), Economics and Consumer Behaviour, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Derviş, Kemal, Jaime de Melo and Sherman Robinson (1982), General equilibrium models for development policy, A World Bank Research Publication, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Francois, Joseph and Kenneth Reinert (1997), Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis : A Handbook, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Goldin, Ian, Odin Knudsen and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (1993), Trade Liberalization: Global Economic Implications, OECD/The World Bank, Paris.
Hertel, Thomas W., editor (1997), Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Hoekman, B and M. Kostecki (1995), The Political Economy of the World Trading System: From GATT to WTO, New York/Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Hoekman, B. and Leidy (1993), “Holes and Loopholes in Regional Integration Agreements,” in K. Anderson and R. Blackhurst (eds.), Regional Integration. London: HarvesterWheatsheaf.Howe, Howard (1975), “Development of the Extended Linear Expenditure System from Simple Savings Assumptions,” European Economic Review, Vol. 6, pp. 305-310.
Kemp, M.C. and H.Y. Wan (1976) “An Elementary Proposition Concerning the Formation of Customs Unions,” in M.C. Kemp, Three Topics in the Theory of International Trade, Amsterdam: North Holland.
Lawrence, Robert Z. (1996), Regionalism, Multilateralism and Deeper Integration. Washington DC: Brookings Institution.
Lee, Hiro, David Roland-Holst and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (1999), “APEC Trade Liberalization and Structural Adjustment: Policy Assumptions,” APEC Discussion 39 Paper Series, APEC Study Center, Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, March.
Lluch, Constantino (1973), “The Extended Linear Expenditure System,” European Economic Review, Vol. 4, pp. 21-32.
Melo, J. de, A. Panagariya, and D. Rodrik (1993) “The New Regionalism: A Country Perspective,” in Melo, J. de and A. Panagariya (eds.), New Dimensions in Regional Integration, London: Centre for Economic Policy Research and Cambridge UP.
Roland-Holst, D., F. Tarp, and D. van der Mensbrugghe (2002), “CNAM: CIEM-NIAS Analytical Model of the Vietnamese Economy: Analytical Documentation,” Draft Discussion Paper DP0205, CIEM, Hanoi.
Tarp, F., J. Rand, and D. Roland-Holst (2001), A 1999 Social Accounting Matrix for Vietnam, CIEM, Hanoi, 80 pp. (forthcoming: The Gioi Publishers, Hanoi).
Tarp, F., and D. Roland-Holst (2002), “Rural-urban Dualism in Vietnam: Prospects for Redistribution Through Economic Reform,” Discussion Paper DP0203, CIEM, Hanoi.
Viner, J. (1950), The Customs Union Issue, New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
World Bank. (2000). Trade Blocs. Policy Research Report. World Bank/Oxford UP