Zahler, Andrés (2007): Decomposing world export growth and the relevance of new destinations. Published in: CID Graduate Student and Postdoctoral Fellow Working Papers No. 20
Download (2MB) | Preview
Looking to understand what drives countries' export growth in practice, I provide a decomposition of world export growth at the product variety level between new destinations, new products, and growth in value of old varieties. New destinations play a significant role, accounting for 37 percent of the growth in developing countries. By comparison, entry into new product categories -a margin that has received considerable attention- explains just 7 percent of export growth. Exploring the nature of destination expansion reveals it is neither automatic nor permanent. Even relatively competitive sectors face difficulties penetrating new destinations, and these difficulties are negatively correlated with population size and GDP per capita. Consistent with pervasive experimentation and failure, more than a third of all products in new destinations exported only once to a destination in the sixteen years studied.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Decomposing world export growth and the relevance of new destinations|
|Keywords:||International trade; export growth; destinations; export growth decomposition; extensive margin|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F19 - Other
|Depositing User:||Andrés Zahler|
|Date Deposited:||21. Apr 2011 20:54|
|Last Modified:||30. Dec 2015 19:56|
Anderson, James and Eric Van Wincoop (2004). "Trade Costs" NBER Working Paper 10480
Armington, Paul S. (1969). "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place and Production", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 16(1): 1268-1290
Bernard, Andrew and Stephen Redding (2007). "Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms" Review of Economic Studies 74(1):31-66
Bernard, Andrew and J. Bradford Jensen (1999). "Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?", Journal of International Economics , 47: 1-25.
Bernard, Andrew, Bradford Jensen, Stephen Redding and Peter Schott (2007). "Firms in International Trade" , Journal of Economic Perspectives (forthcoming).
Bernard, Andrew. B., Jonathan Eaton, J. Bradford Jensen, and Samuel Kortum (2003). "Plants and Productivity in International Trade", American Economic Review, Vol. 93, pp.1268-1290.
Clerides, Sofronis, Lach, Saul, and Tybout, James R. (1998). "Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco". Quarterly Journal of Economics 113: 903-947.
Das, Sanghamitra, Mark Roberts and James Tybout (2006). "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity and Export Dynamics", Econometrica, forthcoming.
Eaton, Jonathan, Marcela Eslava, Maurice Kugler and James Tybout (2007), "Export Growth in Colombia: Firm-Level Evidence" Forthcoming.
Eaton, Jonathan, Samuel Kortum and Francis Kramarz (2004). "Dissecting Trade: Firms, Industries, and Export Destination", American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 94, pp. 150-1
Eaton, Jonathan, Samuel Kortum, and Francis Kramarz (2005). "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence from French Firms",.Working Paper, New York University, Department of Economics.
Evenett, Simon J. and Anthony J. Venables (2002), "Export Growth in Developing Countries: Market Entry and Bilateral Trade Flows", Mimeo
Feenstra, Robert C., Robert E. Lipsey, Haiyan Deng, Alyson C. Ma, Hengyong Mo (2005). "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000", NBER Working Paper 11040
Hausmann, Ricardo and Dani Rodrik (2003). "Economic development as self-discovery", Journal of Development Economics. 72:603-633.
Hausmann, Ricardo, Jason Hwang, and Dani Rodrik (2005). "What You Export Matters", CID working papers No. 123.
Hausmann, Ricardo and Dani Rodrik (2006), "Doomed to Choose: Industrial Policy as Predicament", Draft, Kennedy School of Government.
Hausmann, Ricardo and Bailey Klinger (2006). "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space", CID Working Paper No. 128
Helpman, Elhanan (2004), "The Mistery of Economic Growth". Harvard University Press.
Helpman, Elhanan, Marc Melitz and Yona Rubinstein (2006). "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes". NBER Working paper 12927.
Hummels, David and Peter Klenow (2004). "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Trade",NBER Working Paper 8712.
Hummels, David and Peter Klenow (2005) ."The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports", American Economic Review, Vol. 95. No.3.
Melitz, Marc J. (2003). "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity".Econometrica 71:1695-1725.
Roberts, Mark and Tybout, Robert (1997), "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs", American Economic Review 87: 545-564.
Vettas, Nikolaos (2000). "Investment dynamics in markets with endogenous demand". The Journal of Industrial Economics. 48(2): 189-203.
Broda, Christian and David Weinstein (2006). "Globalization and Gains From Variety". Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol.121, Issue 2.