Light at the End of Tunnel?

Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. and Molina, Angel L., Jr. (2009): Light at the End of Tunnel? Published in: Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast , Vol. 12, No. 4 (22 December 2009): pp. 2-4.

Abstract

For 2009 as a whole, this quarter’s consensus outlook anticipates a steep decline of 6.9 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP). This outlook for inflation-adjusted GDP is not surprising given the panelists expectations for private consumption, as consumers are expected to reduce expenditures by 6.5 percent this year alone. Projections for the government stimulus package have declined substantially, however, with government consumption growth expected to slow to less than 1 percent. Diminished confidence in the Mexican business sector is still expected to cause total fixed investment to shrink at double digit rates. Given the lingering effects of the global economic downturn, the panelists also expect imports and exports to display steep contractions in excess of 11 and 22 percent, respectively. The 2009 consensus figure calls for consumer price increase in excess of 4 percent. Against this backdrop, the panelists expect a 2009 average exchange rate of 13.42 pesos per dollar. The consensus outlook for the 2009 yield on 28-day Treasury Certificates (CETES) holds steady at 5.5 percent, again, this quarter.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Mexico, Macroeconomic Outlook, Consensus Survey
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O54 - Latin America ; Caribbean; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M2 - Business Economics > M21 - Business Economics

References

INEGI, 2009, Producto Interno Bruto, Mexico, DF: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia.