Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026

Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. and Kelley, Brian W. and Molina, Angel L., Jr. (2007): Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026. Published in: Business Report SR07-1 , Vol. 7, (31 March 2007): pp. 1-23.

Abstract

Long-term prospects for the El Paso - Ciudad Juárez borderplex economy call for steady growth. On the north side of the border, the population of El Paso is projected to reach 965 thousand by 2026, the last year of the forecast period. Real gross metropolitan product, the broadest measure of local economic activity, is expected to increase by more than 85 percent over the course of the next two decades to more than $31.5 billion (1996 dollars). Better job market conditions combine with income growth to push total retail sales above $20.7 billion by the end of the simulation period. Given this projected state of affairs, the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model forecasts housing starts to average more than 5 thousand units per year through 2026. Substantially higher single-family home prices result under these circumstances. Demographic expansion and business growth jointly lead to greater demand for water in El Paso. As shown in Table 1, total consumption will approximate 45.8 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Border Economies; Econometric Forecasting Analysis
• Subjects: R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models ; Other Models; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M2 - Business Economics > M21 - Business Economics

References

BEA, 2007, State and Local Area Personal Income, Washington, DC: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis.

INEGI, 2007, Producto Interno Bruto, Mexico, DF: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia.