Muhammad, Shahbaz and Pervaz, Azeem and Ahmad, Khalil (2011): Exports-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan: further evidence.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_33617.pdf Download (143kB) | Preview |
Abstract
The study considers the exports-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data over the period 1990-2008 in case of Pakistan. For this purpose, Ng-Perron unit root test, ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction method (ECM) for short run dynamics have been applied. Our results indicate that exports are positively correlated with economic growth confirming the validity of exports-led growth hypothesis. Exchange rate depreciation decreases and real capital stock improves economic growth.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Exports-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan: further evidence |
English Title: | Exports-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan: Further evidence |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Exports, Economic Growth, ARDL Approach |
Subjects: | F - International Economics > F1 - Trade |
Item ID: | 33617 |
Depositing User: | Muhammad Shahbaz |
Date Deposited: | 22 Sep 2011 13:18 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 00:02 |
References: | Abdulai., A., Jaquet, P., (2002), “Exports and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Cote d’Ivoire”, African Development Review, pp: 1-14. Abual-Foul, B., (2004), “Testing the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Jordan”, Applied Economics Letters, pp: 393-396. Alsuwaidi, A., Shamsi, A. S., (1997), “Exports and Economic Growth in Egypt: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis” Journal of King Saud University, pp: 99-106. Al-Yousif, Y. K., (1999), “On the Role of Exports in the Economic Growth of Malaysia: A Multivariate Analysis”, International Economic Journal, pp: 67–75. Amrinto, L., (2006), “A Semi Parametric Assessment of Export-Led Growth in The Philippines”, Master Dissertation, The Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University. Anwar, M. S., Sampath, R. K., (2000), “Exports and Economic Growth”, Indian Economic Journal, pp: 79-88. Awokuse, T. O., (2005a), “Exports, Economic Growth and Causality in Korea”, Applied Economics Letters, pp: 693-696. Awokuse, T. O., (2005b), Export-Led Growth and the Japanese Economy: Evidence from VAR and Directed Acyclic Graphs, Applied Economics Letters, pp: 849-858. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Alse, J., (1993), “Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling”, The Journal of Developing Areas, pp: 535–542. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Domac, I., (1995), “Export Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis”, Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, pp: 67–77. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Mohtad, H., Shabsigh, G., (1991), “Exports, Growth and Causality in LDCs: A Reexamination”, Journal of Development Economics, pp: 405–415. Balaguer, J., Cantavella-Jorda, M., (2001), “Examining the Export-led Growth Hypothesis for Spain in the Last Century, Applied Economics Letters, pp: 681-685. Balassa, B., (1978), “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, pp: 181–189. Balassa, B., (1984), “Adjustment to External Shocks in Developing Economies”, World Bank Staff Working Paper 472. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Bannerjee, A., Dolado, J., Mestre, R., (1998), “Error-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in Single Equation Framework, Journal of Time Series Analysis, pp: 267-283. Begum, S., Shamsuddin, A. F. M., (1998), “Exports and Economic Growth in Bangladesh”, Journal of Development Studies, pp: 89-114. Bhagwati, J., (1988), “Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes: Liberalisation Attempts and Consequences”, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger. Bhat, Sham K. (1995) Export and Economic Growth in India. Artha Vijana 37:4 350–358. Bowers, W., Pierce, G., (1975), “The Illusion of Deterrence in Isaac Ehrlich’s Work on the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment”, Yale Law Journal, pp: 187-208. Chandra, R., (2003), “Reinvestigation Export-Led Growth in India Using a Multivariate Cointegration Framework”, Journal of Developing Areas, pp: 73-86. Chen, S-W., (2007), “Exactly what is the Link between Export and Growth in Taiwan? New Evidence from the Granger Causality Test”, Economics Bulletin, pp: 1-10. Clarke, J., Ralhan, M., (2005), “Direct and Indirect Causality between Exports and Economic Output for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Horizon Matters”, Econometrics Working Paper EWP05012, Department of Economics, University of Victoria, Victoria, B.C., Canada V8W 2Y2, July, 2005. Darrat, A. F., Hsu, M. K., Zhong, M., (2000), “Testing Export Exogeneity in Taiwan: Further Evidence”, Applied Economics Letters, pp: 563-567. Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A., (1979), “Distribution of the Estimation for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, pp: 355–367. Din, M., (2004), “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate Time-Series Framework”, The Pakistan Development Review, pp: 105-124. Dodaro, S., (1993), “Exports and Growth: A Reconsideration of Causality”, Journal of Developing Areas, pp: 227-244. Doyle, E., (1998), “Export-Output Causality: The Irish Case, 1953–1993”, Atlantic Economic Journal, pp: 147–162. Ehrlich, I., (1975), “The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment – A Question of Life and Death”, American Economic Review, pp: 397-417. Ehrlich, I., (1977), “The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment Reply”, American Economic Review, pp: 452-558. Ekanayake, E. M., (1999), “Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models”, Journal of Economic Development, pp: 43–56. Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J., (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, pp: 251-276. Federici, D., Marconi, D., (2002), “On Exports and Economic Growth: The Case of Italy”, Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, pp: 323-340. Fountas, S., (2000), “Some Evidence on the Export-led Growth Hypothesis for Ireland”, Applied Economics Letters, pp: 211-214. Furuoka, F., (2007), “Do Exports Act as “Engine” of Growth? Evidences from Malaysia?”, Economic Bulletin, pp: 1-14. Ghali, H. K., (2000), “Export Growth and Economic Growth: The Tunisian Experience”, Journal of King Saud University, pp: 127-140. Ghatak, S., Price, S. W., (1997), “Export Composition and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for India”, Review of World Economics, pp: 538-553. Granger, C. W. J., (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric and Cross-Spectral Method”, Econometrica, pp: 424-438. Granger, C. W. J., (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, pp: 199-211. Hatemi-J, A., Irandoust, M., (2000), “Export Performance and Economic Growth Causality: An Empirical Analysis, Atlantic Economic Journal, pp: 412-426. Holman, J. A., Graves, P. E., (1995), “Korean Exports Economic Growth: An Econometric Reassessment”, Journal of Economic Development, pp: 45–56. Howard, M., (2002), “Causality between Exports, Imports and Income in Trinida and Tobago”, International Economic Journal, pp: 97-106. Inder, B., (1993), “Estimations of Long-run Relationship in Economics: A Comparison of Different Approaches”, Journal of Econometrics, pp: 53-68. Johansen, S., (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, pp: 231–54. Johansen, S., (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica, pp: 1551-1580. Johansen, S., (1992), “Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, pp: 383-397. Johansen, S., Juselius, K., (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Cointegration – With Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, pp: 169–210. Jung, W. S., Marshall, P. J., (1985), “Exports, Growth and Causality in Developing Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, pp: 1-12. Kaldor, N., (1967), “Strategic Factors in Economic Development”, New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. Karagoz, M., Sen, A., (2005), “Exports and Economic Growth of Turkey: Co-integration and Error Correction Analysis”, Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, pp: 1-14. Kavoussi, R. M., (1984), “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further empirical evidence”, Journal of Development Economics, pp: 241-250. Kemal, A. R., Din, M., Qadir, U., Lloyd, F., Sirimevan, S. C., (2002), “Exports and Economic Growth in South Asia”, A Study Prepared for the South Asia Network of Economic Research Institutions. Keong, C. Zulkorain, Y and Venus, L. K (2005), “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia: An Investigation Using Bounds Test”, Sunway Academic Journal, pp: 13-22. Keong, C., Zulkorain, Y., Venus, L. K., (2003), “Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia: An Application of Two- Stage Least Square Technique”, International finance, No. 0308002. Kessing, D. B., (1967), “Out-ward Looking Policies and Economic Growth”, Economic Journal, pp: 303-320. Khan, A, H., Malik, A., Hasan, L., (1995), “Export Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-Integration and ECM Model”, The Pakistan Development Review, pp: 145-161. Khan, A. H., Saqib, N., (1993), “Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan Experience”, International Economic Journal, pp: 53-64. Krueger, A. O., (1978), “Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences”, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger. Krueger, A. O., (1980), “Trade Policy as an Input to Development”, American Economic Review, pp: 288-292. Kunst, R. M., Marin, D., (1989), “On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis”, Review of Economics and Statistics, pp: 699–703. Layson, S., (1983), “Homicide and Deterrence: Another View of the Canadian Time Series Evidence”, Canadian Journal of Economics, pp: 52-73. Leow, Y. G., (2004), “A Reexamination of the Exports in Malaysia’s Economic Growth: After Asian Financial Crisis, 1970-2000”, International Journal of Management Sciences, pp: 79-204. Leybourne, S., Kim, T.-H., Smith, V., Newbold, P., (2003), “Tests for a Change in Persistence against the null of Difference Stationary”, Econometrics Journal, pp: 290-310. Love, J., Chandra, R. (2005), “Testing Export-led Growth in South Asia”, Journal of Economic Studies, pp: 132-145. Love, J., Chandra, R., (2004), “Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework”, Journal of the Manchester School, pp: 483-496. Love, J., Chandra, R., (2005), “Testing Export-Led Growth in Bangladesh in a Multivariate VAR Framework”, Journal of Asian Economics, pp: 1155-1168. Lucas, R. E., (1990), “Why does not Capital Outflow from Rich to Poor Countries”, American Economic Review, pp: 92-96. Mah, J. S., (2005), “Export Expansion, Economic Growth and Causality in China”, Applied Economics Letters, pp: 105-107. Mamum, K. A., Nath, H. K., (2005), “Export-led Growth in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis”, Applied Economics Letters, pp: 361-364. Merza, M., (2007), “Oil Exports, Non-Oil Exports and Economic Growth: Time Series Analysis for Kuwait (1970-2004)”, PhD Dissertation, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas. Michaely, M., (1977), “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Development Economics, pp: 49-53. Mutairi, N., (1993), “Exports and Pakistan’s Economic Development”, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, pp: 134-146. Narayan, P. K., (2005), “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, pp: 1979-1990. Ngoc, P. M., Phuong, N. T., Nga, P. T., (2003), “Exports and Long-Run Growth in Vietnam, 1976-2001”, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, pp: 1-25. Olorunfemi and Olorunsola., (2006), “Time Series of Export and Growth in the Economic Growth in the Ecowas Countries”. The Social Sciences, pp: 344-350. Ozmen, E., Furten, G., (1998), “Export Led-growth Hypothesis and The Turkish Data: An Empirical Investigation, METU Studies in Development, pp: 491-503. Pahlavani, M., (2005), “The Relationship between Trade and Economic Growth in Iran: An Application of a New Cointegration Technique in the Presence of Structural Breaks”, Economic Working paper Series. Panas, E., Vamvoukas, G., (2002), “Further Evidence on the Export-led Growth Hypothesis,” Applied Economic Letters, pp: 731-745. Perron, P., (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, pp: 1361-1401. Perron, P., (1990), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with a Changing Mean”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, pp: 153-162. Pesaran, M. H., Pesaran, B., (1997), “Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis”, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, Chapter 11 in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Strom S (ed.). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., Smith, R. J., (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, pp: 289-326. Phillips, P. C. B., (1987), “Time Series Regression with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, pp: 277-301. Phillips, P. C. B., Durlauf, S. N., (1986), “Multiple Time Series Regressions with Integrated Processes”, Review of Economic Studies, pp: 473-495. Phillips, P. C. B., Perron, P., (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regressions”, Biometrika, pp: 335-346. Quddus, M. A., Saeed, I., (2005), “An Analysis of Export and Growth in Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, pp: 921-937. Ramos, F. F. R., (2001), “Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis” Economic Modeling, pp: 613-23. Richard, D. G., (2001), “Exports as a Determinant of Long-Run Growth in Paraguay: 1966-1996”, Journal of Development Studies, pp: 128-146. Riezman, R., Whiteman, C., Summers, P. M., (1995), “The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth”, Working Papers 95-16, University of Iowa, Department of Economics. Sengupta, J. K., Espana, J. R., (1994), “Exports and Economic growth in Asian NICs: An Econometric analysis for Korea”, Applied Economics, pp: 45-51. Shahbaz, M., Awan, R. U., Ahmad, K., (2011), “The Exchange Value of the Pakistan Rupee & Pakistan Trade Balance: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach” The Journal of Developing Areas, pp: 69-93. Shahbaz, M., Leitao, N. C., (2010), “Intra-Industry Trade: The Pakistan Experience”, International Journal of Applied Economics, pp: 18-27. Shan, J., Sun, F., (1998), “On the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Econometric Evidence from China”, Applied Economics, pp: 1055-1065. Sharma, A., Panagiotidis, P., (2005), “An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence (1971-2001)”, Review of Development Economics, pp: 232-248. Sharma, U. C., Dhakal, D., (1994), “Causal Analysis between Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”, Applied Economics, pp: 1145-1157. Shirazi, N. S., and Manap, T. A. A., (2004), “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence from South Asia”, The Developing Economies, pp: 472-488. Siddiqui, S., Zehra, S., Majeed, S., Butt. M. S., (2008), “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: A Reinvestigation Using the Bounds Test”, The Lahore Journal of Economics, pp: 59-80. Siliverstovs, B., Herzer, D., (2006), “Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence for Chile”, Applied Economics Letters, pp: 319-324. Silivertovs, B., (2005), “Export-led Growth Hypothesis Evidence for Chile. Ibero- America Instituet for Economic Research (IAI). http://www.iau.wiwi.uni-goettingen.de. Sims, C. A., (1972), “Are There Exogenous Variables in Short-Run Production Relations”, National Bureau of Economic Research, pp: 16-35. Sprout, R.V.A., Weaver, J. H., (1993), “Exports and Economic Growth in a Simultaneous Equations Model”, Journal of Developing Areas, pp: 289-306. Taban, S., Akhtar, I., (2008), “An Empirical Examination of the Export Led-Growth Hypotheses in Turkey”, Journal of Yasar University, pp: 549-564. Thungsuwan, S. and Thompasn, H., (2003), “Exports and Economic Growth in Thailand: An Empirical Analysis”, BU Academic Review, pp: 10-20. Ukpolo, V., (1994), “Export Composition and Growth of Selected Low-Income African Countries: Evidence from Time-Series Data”, Applied Economics, pp: 445-449. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/33617 |