Havas, Attila (2011): Governing policy processes and foresight. Published in: G. Banse, A. Grunwald, I. Hronszky & G. Nelson (eds) [2011]: On Prospective Technology Studies, Karlsruhe: KIT Scientific Publishing (31 October 2011): pp. 1-18.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_38119.pdf Download (322kB) | Preview |
Abstract
The increasing number of foresight programmes suggests that foresight can be a useful policy tool in rather different national innovation systems. This paper is aimed at discussing the potential and actual role of foresight in governing policy processes. First the theoretical underpinnings of this analysis is summarised briefly. Then the rationale of conducting foresight is presented: what policy challenges can be tackled by applying foresight? It is followed by a discussion of a new typology of foresight programmes, distinguishing the ones with an S&T, techno-economic or societal/ socio-economic focus. The concluding section summarises the major lessons, and also presents some policy and methodological dilemmas.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Governing policy processes and foresight |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Locating foresight among other prospective tools, Rationales for conducting foresight, Typology of foresight programmes |
Subjects: | O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O38 - Government Policy |
Item ID: | 38119 |
Depositing User: | Attila Havas |
Date Deposited: | 16 Apr 2012 18:13 |
Last Modified: | 09 Oct 2019 04:59 |
References: | Aichholzer, G. (2001): The Austrian foresight program: organization and expert profile, International Journal of Technology Management, Vol. 21, No. 7-8, pp. 739-755 Barré, R. (2001): Synthesis of Technology Foresight, in: Strategic Policy Intelligence: Current trends, the state of play and perspectives, pp. 71-88, ESTO, IPTS Technical Report Series, EUR 20137 EN, Sevilla Barré, R. (2002): Foresights and Their Themes: Analysis, typology and perspectives, in: The role of Foresight in the Selection of Research Policy Priorities, 13-14 May, 2002, Conference papers, pp. 88-109 Blind, K., Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H (1999): Current Foresight Activities in Central Europe, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60, No. 1, pp. 15-35 Coates, J.F. (1985): Foresight in Federal Government Policymaking, Futures Research Quarterly, Summer 1985, pp. 29-53 Cuhls, K. (2003): From forecasting to foresight processes: New participative foresight activities in Germany, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22, No. 2-3, pp. 93-111 Cuhls, K., Blind, K. and Grupp, H. (2002): Innovations for our Future, Delphi ’98: New foresight on science and technology, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2002 DACCST (1999): Dawn of the African Century: A Nation at work through Science and Technology for a better future, Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology: Pretoria Dodgson, M. and Bessant, J. (1996): Effective Innovation Policy: A new approach, London: International Thomson Dodgson, M. and Rothwell R. (eds) (1994): The Handbook of Industrial Innovation, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Dosi, G. (1988a): The nature of the innovative process, in Dosi et al. (eds.) (1988] Dosi, G. (1988b): Sources, procedures and microeconomic effects of innovation, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 26, September, pp. 1120-1171 Dosi, G. (1992): The research on innovation diffusion: An assessment, in: Nakicenovic, N. and Grübler, A. (eds.): Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behaviour, Berlin: Springer-Verlag, pp. 179-208 Dosi, G., Freeman, C. and Fabiani, S. (1994): The process of economic development: Introducing some stylized facts and theories on technologies, firms and institutions, Industrial and Corporate Change, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 1-45 Dosi, G., Freeman, C., Nelson, R.R., Silverberg, G. and Soete, L. (eds) (1988): Technical Change and Economic Theory, London: Pinter EC (2003): European Innovation Scoreboard 2003, CORDIS focus supplement, Luxembourg: European Commission, Enterprise Directorate-General EC DG Research (2002): Thinking, debating and shaping the future: Foresight for Europe, final report of the High Level Expert Group, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg Edquist, C. (ed.) (1997): Systems of Innovations: Technologies, institutions and organizations, London: Pinter Ergas, H. (1987): The importance of technology policy, in: Partha Dasgupta and Paul Stoneman (eds): Economic Policy and Technological Performance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 51-96 Fagerberg, J., Mowery, D.C. and Nelson RR. (eds) (2005): The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford: Oxford UP Fleissner, P. et al. (1998): Recent national foresight studies, IPTS: Sevilla FOREN (2001): A Practical Guide to Regional Foresight, Foresight for Regional Development Network, European Commission, Research Directorate General, Strata Programme, Brussels (also at: http://foren.jrc.es) Freeman, C. (1991): Networks of innovators, a synthesis of research issues, Research Policy, Vol. 20, No. 5, pp.499-514 Freeman, C. (1994a): The economics of technical change: A critical survey, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 463-514 Freeman, C. (1994b): Marching to the Sound of a Different Drum, paper presented at the EUNETIC Conference on “Evolutionary Economics of Technological Change: Assessment of results and new frontiers”, Strasbourg, 6-8 October Freeman, C. (1995): The ‘National System of Innovation’ in historical perspective, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 5-24 Freeman, C. and Soete, L. (1997): The Economics of Industrial Innovation (3rd edn), London: Pinter Gavigan, JP. and Cahill, E. (1997): Overview of recent European and non-European national technology foresight studies, IPTS: Sevilla Georghiou, L. (1996): The UK Technology Foresight Programme, Futures, Vol. 28, pp. 359-377 Georghiou, L. (2001): Third Generation Foresight: Integrating the Socio-economic Dimension, in: Technology Foresight – the approach to and potential for New Technology Foresight, Conference proceedings, NISTEP Research Material 77 Georghiou, L. (2002): Policy rationales, sponsors and objectives, presentation at the eFORESEE Workshop on Foresight Basics, Malta, 24-26 July 2002 Georghiou, L., Cassingena H., J., Keenan, M., Miles, I., and Popper, R. (eds) [2008]: The Handbook of Technology Foresight - Concepts and Practices, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Godet, M. (2001): Creating Futures: Scenario planning as a strategic management tool, London: Economica Grupp, H. (1996): Foresight in Science and Technology: Selected methodologies and recent activities in Germany, OECD STI Review, Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, No. 17, pp. 71-100 Grupp, Hariolf and Harold A. Linstone (1999): National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60, No. 1, pp. 85-94 Havas, A. (2003a): Evolving Foresight in a Small Transition Economy, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22, No. 2-3, pp. 179-201 Havas, A. (2003b): The Relevance of Foresight for Accession Countries and Possibilities for Co-operation, IPTS Report, No. 73, pp. 4-11 Havas, A. and Keenan, M. (2008): Foresight in CEE Countries, in: Georghiou, L., Cassingena H., J., Keenan, M., Miles, I., and Popper, R. (eds): The Handbook of Technology Foresight - Concepts and Practices, pp. 287-316, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Johnston, R. (2002): The State and Contribution of International Foresight: New challenges, in: The role of Foresight in the Selection of Research Policy Priorities, 13-14 May, 2002, Conference papers, pp. 59-74 Klusacek, K. (2004): Technology foresight in the Czech Republic, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, Vol. 1, No. 1-2, pp.89-105 Kuwahara, T. (1996): Technology Foresight in Japan: A new approach in methodology and analysis, OECD STI Review, Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, No. 17, pp. 52-70 Kuwahara, T. (1999): Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60, No. 1, pp. 5-14 Kuwahara, T. (2004): Technology Foresight in Japan, presentation at a UNIDO Seminar on Technology Foresight Methods and Practices for Ukraine, 31 August – 4 September, Kiev Lipsey, RG. and Carlaw, K. (1998): Technology policies in neo-classical and structuralist-evolutionary models, STI Review, No. 22, pp. 31-73 Lundvall, B-Å. (ed.) (1992): National Systems of Innovation: Towards a theory of innovation and interactive learning, London: Pinter Lundvall, B-Å. and Borrás, S. (1999): The Globalising Learning Economy: Implications for Innovation Policy, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities Lundvall, B-Å. and Tomlinson, M. (2002): International benchmarking as a policy learning tool, in: Maria João Rodrigues (ed.): The New Knowledge Economy in Europe, pp. 203-231, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Lundvall, B-Å, Johnson, B, Andersen, E.S., and Dalum B. (2002): National systems of production, innovation and competence building, Research Policy, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 213-231 Malerba, F. (2002): Sectoral systems of innovation and production, Research Policy, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 247-264 Martin, B. (1996): Technology Foresight: A review of recent government exercises, OECD STI Review, Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, No. 17, pp. 15-50 Martin, B. and Irvine, J. (1989): Research Foresight: Priority-setting in science, Pinter Publishers: London and New York Martin, B. and Johnston, R. (1999): Technology Foresight for Wiring up the National Innovation System: Experiences in Britain, Australia and New Zealand, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60, No. 1, pp. 37-54 Metcalfe, S.J. and Georghiou, L. (1998): Equilibrium and evolutionary foundations of technology policy, STI Review, No. 22, pp. 75-100 Molitor, G.T.T. (2000): Five Economic Activities Likely to Dominate the New Millennium: III Life Sciences Era, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 65, No. 3, pp. 297-310 Nedeva, M., Georghiou, L., Loveridge, D. and Cameron, H. (1996): The use of co-nomination to identify expert participants for Technology Foresight, R&D Management, Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 155-168 Nelson, R.R. (ed.) (1993): National Innovation Systems: A comparative study, New York: Oxford University Press Nelson, R.R. (1995): Recent evolutionary theorizing about economic change, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 33, January, pp. 48-90 Nelson, R.R. and Winter, S.G. (1982): An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Niosi, J. (2002): National systems of innovation are “x-efficient” (and x-effective): Why some are slow learners, Research Policy, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 291-302 OECD (1992): TEP: The Key Relationships, Paris: OECD OECD (1997): Creativity, Innovation and Job Creation, Paris: OECD OECD (1998): New Rationale and Approaches in Technology and Innovation Policy, STI Review, No. 22 OECD (2001): Innovative Networks: Co-operation in national innovation systems, Paris: OECD OST (1998): The Future in Focus: A summary of national foresight programmes, HMSO: London Pavitt, K. (1984): Patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and theory, Research Policy, Vol. 13, No. 6, pp. 343-373 Renn, O. (2002): Foresight and Multi-level Governance, in: The role of Foresight in the Selection of Research Policy Priorities, 13-14 May, 2002, Conference papers, pp. 35-45 Salo, A. and Cuhls, K. (eds) (2003): Special Issue on Technology Foresight, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22, No. 2-3 Shin, T. (1998): Using Delphi for a Long-Range Technology Forecasting and Assessing Directions of Future R&D Activities in Korea, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 58, No. 1-2, pp.125-154 Shin, Taeyoung (2004): Korean Delphi for Technology Forecasting and S&T Planning, presentation at a UNIDO seminar on Technology Foresight for Organizers, 13-17 December, Gebze, Turkey Smith, Keith (1997): Economic Infrastructures and Innovation Systems, in: Edquist, Charles (ed.) (1997], pp. 86-106 Smith, K. (2002): What is the ‘Knowledge Economy’? Knowledge intensity and distributed knowledge bases, UNU/INTECH Discussion Paper Series, 2002-6 Teubal, M. (1998): Enterprise restructuring and embeddedness: An innovation systems and policy perspective, paper presented at INTECH Conference on The Economics of Industrial Structure and Innovation Dynamics, Lisbon, 16-17 October Tidd, J., Bessant, J. and Pavitt, K. (1997): Managing Innovation: Integrating technological, market and organizational change, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons Tümer, T. (2004): Technology Foresight in Turkey: Vision 2023 Project, presentation at a UNIDO seminar on Technology Foresight for Organizers, 13-17 December, Gebze, Turkey UNIDO (2003): Technology Foresight Methodologies, text book, Regional Initiative for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Newly Independent States (NIS), Capacity Building Component, Training Module 2, Vienna: UNIDO Weber, M. (1947): Legitimate Authority and Bureaucracy, in: The Theory of Social and Economic Organisation (translated and edited by A.M. Henderson and T. Parsons), pp. 328-340, Free Press {reprinted in Pugh, D.S. (ed.) (1985): Organization Theory: Selected readings, pp. 15-27, London: Penguin Group} |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/38119 |