Sinclair, Sarah and Boymal, Jonathan and de Silva, Ashton J (2012): Is the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus heterogeneous across maternal age? Evidence from Victoria.
Download (509kB) | Preview
The Australian baby bonus, offering parents $3,000 on the birth of a child, was announced on May 11 2004. The focus of this paper is to analyse the response to the policy across maternal age levels in order to separate policy effects from prevailing demographic trends such as recuperation of previously postponed births. Using multivariate time series analysis, we find that all age groups except teenagers show a positive fertility response to the policy. The results suggest that the policy may have elicited fertility behaviour change, evidenced by a higher cumulative growth in fertility of maternal age groups 20-24 and 24-30 which is sustained past 2008 even as a growth in birth ratios of older age groups was stabilising. A short term birth timing effect was also estimated to further explore the extent to which incentives matter for decisions around family formation.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Is the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus heterogeneous across maternal age? Evidence from Victoria.|
|Keywords:||Baby bonus, fertility, family policy, postponement, recuperation, age specific fertility, STAMP|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J18 - Public Policy
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
|Depositing User:||Ashton de Silva|
|Date Deposited:||19. Nov 2012 11:35|
|Last Modified:||01. Mar 2013 13:56|
Ahn N, Mira P (2002) A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries. Journal of Population Economics 15: 667–682
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2012) Year book Australia 2012, Catalogue number 1301.0
Australian Bureau of Statistics , Canberra, Australia. [cited 20 June 2012] Available from : Http://www.abs.gov.au
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2011) Births Australia, ABS Catalogue number 3301.0 Australian Bureau of Statistics , Canberra, Australia. [cited 20 June 2012] Available from : Http://www.abs.gov.au
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2010) Australian Demographic statistics , ABS Catalogue 3101 Australian Bureau of Statistics , Canberra, Australia. [cited June 2010] Available from : Http://www.abs.gov.au
Becker GS (1965) A Theory of the Allocation of Time. The Economic Journal 75: 493–517
Becker GS, Barro RJ (1988) A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility. NBER Working Paper No. 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Bhrolchain Ni MN (1992) Period Paramount? A Critique of the Cohort Approach to Fertility. Population and Development Review 18: 599–629
Biro MA, Davey MA, Carolan M, Kealy M (2012) Advanced maternal age and obstetric morbidity for women giving birth in Victoria, Australia: A population-based study. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology 52: 229–234
Bongaarts J (2008) What can fertility indicators tell us about pronatalist policy options? Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2008, pp 39–55
Bongaarts J, Sobotka T (2012) A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility. Population and Development Review 38: 83–120
Bratti M, Tatsiramos K (2010) The effect of delaying motherhood on the second childbirth in Europe. Journal of Population Economics 25: 291–321
Buttner T, Lutz W (1990) Estimating Fertility Responses to Policy Measures in the German Democratic Republic. Population and Development Review 16: 539–555
Castles FG (2003) The World Turned Up-Side Down: Below Replacement fertility, Changing Preferences and Family Friendly Public Policy in 21 OECD Countries. Journal of European Social policy 13 CCOPMM (2011) Births in Victoria 2007 and 2008. Department of Health, Melbourne.
Cohen A, Dehejia R, Romanov D (2007) Do Financial Incentives Affect Fertility? NBER Working Paper No. 13700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
D’Addio AC, d’ Ecole MM (2005) Trends and Determinants of Fertility Rates: The Role of Policies. OECD Social, Employment and Migration working paper No 27
Duclos E, Merrigan P, Lefebvre P (2001) A natural Experiment on the Economics of Storks;Evidence on the impact of differential family policy on fertility rates in Canada. CREFE Working Paper No 136, Université du Québec à Montréal
Drago, R, Sawyer K, Shreffler K, Warren D, and Wooden M.(2011) “Did Australia’s Baby Bonus Increase Fertility Intentions and Births?” Population Research and Policy Review 30, no. 3 (2011): 381–397.
Gans JS, Leigh A (2009) Born on the first of July: An (un)natural experiment in birth timing. Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Public Economics 93: 246–263
Gans JS, Leigh A (2007) Born (again) on the first of July: Another experiment in birth timing. The selected work of Joshua S Gans. Available at http://works.bepress.com/joshgans/15
Gauthier A (2007) The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature. Population Research and Policy Review 26: 323–346
Gauthier A, Hatzius J (1997) Family policy and fertility: An econometric analysis. Population Studies 51: 295–306
Gray M, Qu L, Weston R (2008) Fertility and family policy in Australia. Australian Institute of Family Studies, Melbourne
Harvey AC (1991) Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge University Press
Holton S, Fisher J, Rowe H (2011) To have or not to have? Australian women’s childbearing desires, expectations and outcomes. Journal of Population Research 28: 353–379
Hoorens S, Clift J, Staetsky L, Janta B, Diepeveen S, Morgan Jones M, Grant J (2011) Low fertility in Europe: Is there still reason to worry? RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG1080.html. accessed October 2012
Koopman SJ, Harvey AC, Doornik JA, Shephard N (2006) Structural Time Series Analyser, Modeller and Predictor: STAMP 8.2. Timberlake Consultants
Kalwij A (2010) The Impact of Family Policy Expenditure on Fertility in Western Europe. Demography 47 2 : 502
Kuhn A, Brunner B (2011) Financial Incentives, the Timing of Births, Birth Complications, and Newborns’ Health: Evidence from the Abolition of Austria’s Baby Bonus. IZA Discussion Paper No. 6141, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Lain SJ, Ford JB, Raynes-Greenow CH, Hadfield RM, Simpson JM, Morris JM, Roberts CL (2009) The impact of the Baby Bonus payment in New South Wales: who is having “one for the country”? Med J Aust 190: 238–241
Langridge AT, Nassar N, Li J, Jacoby P, Stanley FJ (2010) The impact of monetary incentives on general fertility rates in Western Australia. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. 66: 296-301
Laroque G, Salanié B (2008) Does Fertility Respond to Financial Incentives? IZA Discussion Paper No. 3575,.Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Leridon H. (2010) Human Fecundity: situation and outlook. Population and societies 471: 1-4
Lutz W, Skirbekk V (2005) Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low-Fertility Countries. Population and Development Review 31: 703–723
McDonald P, Kippen R (2007) The intrinsic Total Fertility Rate: A New Approach to the Measurement of Fertility. Presented at the Population Association of America, New York.
Miller AR (2009) The effects of motherhood timing on career path. Journal of Population Economics 24: 1071–1100
Milligan, K., 2005. Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility. Review of Economics and Statistics 87, 539–555.
Neugart M, Ohlsson H (2012) Economic incentives and the timing of births: evidence from the German parental benefit reform of 2007. Journal of Population Economics 26: 87–108
Nimwegen van N, Erf van der R, Nimwegen van N, Erf van der RF, Heering EL (2009) The demographic situation in the European Union. In: Social Situation Observatory Demography Monitor 2008: demographic trends, socioeconomic impacts and policy implications in the European Union: final report. pp 25–69
Parr N, Guest R (2011) The contribution of increases in family benefits to Australia’s early 21st-century fertility increase: An empirical analysis. Demographic Research 25: 215–244
Risse L (2010) “…And one for the country” The effect of the baby bonus on Australian women’s childbearing intentions. Journal of Population Research 27: 213–240
Robson SJ, Tan WS, Adeyemi A, Dear KBG (2009) Estimating the rate of cesarean section by maternal request: anonymous survey of obstetricians in Australia. Birth 36: 208–212
Sinclair S, Boymal J, De Silva A (2012) A Re-Appraisal of the Fertility Response to the Australian Baby Bonus. Economic Record 88: 78–87
Sobotka T (2003) Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe. Demographic Research 8: 151–214
Tamm M (2009) The Impact of a Large Parental Leave Benefit Reform on the Timing of Birth around the Day of Implementation (Ruhr Economic Paper No. 0098). Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
Testa MR, Sobotka T, Morgan SP (2011) Reproductive decision-making: towards improved theoretical, methodologocal and empirical approaches. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 9: 1–9
Thévenon O, Gauthier AH (2011) Family policies in developed countries: a “fertility-booster” with side-effects. Community, Work & Family 14: 197–216
Thévenon O, Luci A (2012) The impact of family policy packages on fertility trends in developed countries. Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers), HAL
Weston R, Qu L, Parker R, Alexander M (2004) “It’s not for lack of wanting kids…” A report on the Fertility Decision Making Project Australian Institute of Family Studies Research report no.11 http://www.aifs.gov.au/institute/pubs/resreport11/main.html.accessed July 2012
Wooden,M. and Watson,N (2007), The HILDA Survey and its contributions to Economic Social Research (So Far) , Economic record 83 (261), 208-31