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الآثار الإقتصادیة لهجرة العمالة المصریة إلى الخارج

Shehata, Emad Abd Elmessih (2003): الآثار الإقتصادیة لهجرة العمالة المصریة إلى الخارج. Published in: The Egyptian Society of Agricultural Economics, The 11th Conference of Agricultural Economists: Human Development in the Rural Sector No. 11 (September 2003): pp. 419-440.


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Egyptian labor emigration is considered one of the changes, that led to the structural distortions in the domestic labor market in Egypt, the countries gulf were the main source of the Egyptian labor temporal emigration, while the USA, Canada, and Australia were the main source of the permanent emigration from Egypt. After the first gulf war, the Egyptian economy faced labor immigration. The study research problem, handled nature of the changes that occurred in labor market, as a direct results of the national and international economic effects. So the objective of the study is to explore the main features of the Egyptian labor emigration, and the potential impacts of the Egyptian labor immigration.

The study used the regression analysis, i.e., maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for simple regression, and simultaneous equations system by three stage least squares (3SLS), and took with considerations autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, non normality, and multicollinearity problems, the previous econometric problems were detected by lagrange multiplier tests, and were remedied by using Pagan’s conditional least squares (CLS) of autoregression procedure, Bollerslev’s generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), robust regression quantile of least absolute deviation (LAD), and Hoerl's Ordinary ridge regression (ORR) respectively.

The study discussed the changes and growth in the Egyptian labor market, the results indicated that there was a statistical increasing significance in the population, labor force, employed labor, unemployed labor, and the labor wages, while there was a statistical decreasing significance in unemployment rate and wage of labor during the period subject to analysis. On the other hand the results indicated that there was a statistical significance increasing in the permanent and temporal emigration. Saudi Arabia captured the most Egyptian emigration, also, Libya, Jordan, and Kuwait. In general the whole emigration increased significantly during the period of the study. Features of the Egyptian labor immigration were discussed, i.e., gender, occupation, educational status, job status, age, and the reasons of immigration to Egypt either internal or external reasons, and the potential impacts of immigration, also the positive and negative impacts for emigration from Egypt. Emigration model was estimated by (3SLS) with Newey-West’s generalized method of moments (GMM), the results indicated that, increasing unemployment rate and population led to increase emigration, while increasing the demand for domestic labor and the average annual labor wage have an effect for decreasing emigration.

Finally, some recommendation from the study were mentioned, for encouragement emigration, i.e., activating and establishment the international relationships between Egypt and the neighboring countries, a diplomatic effort for emigration stabilization abroad, the search of new labor market in other countries. Also some recommendation with respect to immigration, i.e., simplification investment procedures, encouragement the industries that have an intensive human labor, and activating the training role that agree with the labor market requirements, for developing the human resources

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