Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Thoughts on quantifying overconfidence in economic experiments

Michailova, Julija and Katter, Joana K. Q. (2013): Thoughts on quantifying overconfidence in economic experiments.

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Abstract

This article illustrates the difficulties of quantifying overconfidence in economic experiments and suggests a procedure for the development of the reliable overconfidence measurement instrument (test). Following the suggested two-stage procedure a sample measure of overconfidence is developed. First a pilot test is conducted to divide the initial fifty items into three difficulty levels: hard, moderate and easy questions. A final test was compiled of six questions of each difficulty levels. In the second phase a replicability check was run with the final instrument.

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