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Una aproximación metodológica al Balance Estructural: Aplicación a Ecuador

Reza Paocarina, Edison Bolívar (2013): Una aproximación metodológica al Balance Estructural: Aplicación a Ecuador.

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Abstract

Since the crisis experienced in recent years and its close relationship with the state of the public finances of countries, fiscal sustainability and its impact on the real economy, there is a growing interest regarding the study and empirical applications related to the generation of areas to ensure fiscal health of nations. With this background, the present work tries to develop a methodology top down for estimating the structural balance of Ecuador´s NFPS from the compilation of fiscal statistics in the country for the quarterly period: 2000 I – 2012 II. Adjustments are made to the non – oil revenues over the business cycle, current expenditure and oil revenues regarding the divergence in the price of WTI crude versus medium term. Then it comes to assessing the causal hypothesis of the position of the primary outcomes observed with the variation of WTI crude and explanatory relation is observed. So trough the implementation of structural balance in the country the political authorities could achieve three primary objectives: to establish fiscal rules consistent with potential output of the economy, to assess the will of the fiscal policymaker and ultimately ensure sustainability prosecutor of the Ecuadorian economy in the long run.

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