Diamondopoulos, John (2012): To what extent are financial crises comparable and thus predictable?
Download (440kB) | Preview
This paper critically examines the quantitative approach to financial crises from two perspectives. First, the assumption of comparability of financial crises is analyzed. The key question here is: how comparable are crises? An important consideration here is the context – social and political. Second, if financial crises are comparable to a certain extent, then we should be able to make predictions. Thus, the second key question is: how predictable are crises? The results have implications for the development of a theory of financial crises and government policies on crisis management.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||To what extent are financial crises comparable and thus predictable?|
|Keywords:||Financial crises, Crisis, Crisis Models, Crisis Management|
|Subjects:||G - Financial Economics > G0 - General > G01 - Financial Crises
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G18 - Government Policy and Regulation
H - Public Economics > H1 - Structure and Scope of Government > H12 - Crisis Management
|Depositing User:||John Diamondopoulos|
|Date Deposited:||30. Mar 2013 02:56|
|Last Modified:||29. Aug 2015 06:16|
Allan and Gale. 2007. Understanding Financial Crises, Oxford University Press.
Berg and Patillo. 1998. Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test, IMF Working Paper, WP/98/154, November
Berg, Borensztein, and Patillo. 2004. Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? IMF Working Paper, WP/04/52, March
Bordo, Eichengreen, Klingebiel, Rose and Soledad Marinez-Peria. 2001. Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe? Economic Policy, Vol. 16, No. 32 (Apr., 2001), pp. 51+ 53-82
Bussière and Fratzscher. 2002. Towards a New Early Warning System of Financial Crises, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series No. 145, May
Canova. 1994. Were Financial Crises Predictable? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 26, No. 1 (Feb., 1994), pp. 102-124
Didier, Mauro and Schmukler. 2006. Vanishing Contagion? IMF Policy Discussion Paper, PDP/06/01
Durlauf and Blume, editors. 2010. Monetary Economic, Palgrave MacMillan.
Jacobs, Bruce I. 1999. Capital Ideas and Market Realities, Blackwell Publishers, Inc.
Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart. 1998. Leading Indicators of Currency Crises, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 45, No. 1 (Mar., 1998), pp. 1-48
Krugman, Paul. 2008. The Return of Depression Economics And The Crisis of 2008, Penguin Books.
Lowenstein, Roger. 2002. When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management, Fourth Edition, A Division of Harper Collins Publishers.
Mariano, Gultekin, Ozmucur and Shabbir. 2000. Models of Economic and Financial Crises, Middle East Economic Association - MEEA Journal (Online Journal of Loyola University Chicago, www.luc.edu/orgs/meea), Volume 2, September
Reinhart and Rogoff. 2009. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
Poltenen. 2006. Are Emerging Market Currency Crises Predictable? European Central Bank, Working Paper Series No. 571, January
Warneryd, Karl-Erik. 2001. Stock-Market Psychology: How People Value and Trade Stocks, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.