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Le Cycle des affaires dans les pays MENA Une Application du Filtre Hodrick-Prescott

Bouoiyour, Jamal and Ibourk, Aomar (2005): Le Cycle des affaires dans les pays MENA Une Application du Filtre Hodrick-Prescott. Published in: FEMISE No. Obstacles to South-South Integration, (November 2005)

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze monetary integration through the correlation of business cycles across countries. In this context, different estimation methods have been used in real GDP data (Dollars in base 1995) for 8 Southern Mediterranean countries of the (SMC) and covering the period 1960-2004. The results show that i) the cross-correlation of business cycles are very low, ii) SMC have very different cycles and therefore they do not fulfill the criteria of the OCA theory. To refine these results, we distinguished two groups of countries, the AMU countries and those of the Middle East. Correlations remain low despite the consolidation. However, the correlation matrix of long cycles gives interesting results since in most cases; long cycles are well correlated except in the case of Syria and Turkey. The results, taken together, show the difficulty of implementing a monetary union between PSM.

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