Munich Personal RePEc Archive

The Evolution of Conflict and Effectiveness of Aid

Dimico, Arcangelo (2013): The Evolution of Conflict and Effectiveness of Aid.

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Abstract

The effect of aid on civil war has been widely debated. In this paper we introduce a new framework to evaluate the effectiveness of aid on conflict. Using proxies for the evolution of conflict we show that over the course of the conflict aid significantly affects the escalation and de-escalation of conflicts and that both measures are also highly sensitive to the rate of change in the share of aid. These results provide useful indications from a policy point of view in terms of the timing of aid to countries experiencing a conflict. We also show that the evolution of conflict significantly affects economic growth providing evidence of a sort of indirect effect of aid on economic growth.

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