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The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction

Bazhanov, Andrei and Vyscrebentsev, Alexei (2005): The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction.

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Abstract

Our approach is based on the use of the Durbin-Watson statistic and other statistical criteria for the specification of the number of the nonlinear summands in the empirical model of M.K. Hubbert. Given alternate criteria we compare the dynamics of extraction over recent years for the USA and Russia. We compare simulated dynamics to data on recoverable oil reserves for recent years.

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