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Oferta Pública Inicial (IPO) de ações no Brasil: uma análise dos retornos da IPO de ações com baixo Índice Preço/Lucro (P/L)

Saturnino, Odilon and Saturnino, Valéria and Lucena, Pierre and Caetano, Marcelino and Florencio dos Santos, Josete (2012): Oferta Pública Inicial (IPO) de ações no Brasil: uma análise dos retornos da IPO de ações com baixo Índice Preço/Lucro (P/L).

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Abstract

The Brazilian capital market has been in the last 10 years a attractive space for negotiations and opening of company’s capital. The early studies of market anomalies that are looking for evidence on reasons of understatement and overstatement at the time of the IPO in Brazil date back to decade of 1970, from the perspective of the assumptions of hypothesis market’s efficiency. This study had as objective analyze the performance of the stocks of companies which opened their capital in BOVESPA between 2002 and 2010, seeking to identify those to obtain extraordinary returns by evaluating the multiple price / future earnings of these companies, the industry and the trading volume, as a basis for measuring the performance of stocks, reapplying the methodology proposed by Casotti and Motta (2008). We used 82 stocks of companies that have done IPO, to compare its performance with the sector through hypothesis tests for comparison of means and correlation analysis, as well as ross section regression. The results corroborate those found by authors above cited, that can’t be statistically confirmed an stock that has its ratio of price / earnings and future price / earnings ratio of sector less than one, characterizing it as an undervalued share, bring returns abnormal in the short or long term. Furthermore, the regression results significantly show that the lower the offer price stock, the greater is your risk premium in the third and fourth years.

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