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Long-run trend, Business Cycle & Short-run shocks in real GDP

Arby, Muhammad Farooq (2001): Long-run trend, Business Cycle & Short-run shocks in real GDP. Published in: SBP Working Paper Series No. No.1 (September 2001)

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Gross domestic product may be considered, a combination of three processes viz., long-run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. The series of GDP can be decomposed in to its three components by using some statistical method. Such a decomposition of real GDP of Pakistan reveals that the Pakistan’s economy has a declining growth in long-run trend since early 1980s that however, is expected to start rising in 2001-02. Pakistan is also facing a recessionary phase of third business cycle, which is expected to end in 2004-05.

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