延迟退休年龄会挤出年轻人就业吗?

Zhang, Chuanchuan (2012): 延迟退休年龄会挤出年轻人就业吗?

Abstract

在快速的人口老龄化形势下，延迟退休年龄是一个可以立刻起效缓解抚养压力的措施。然而,很多人认为延迟退休年龄会挤出年轻人就业。本文用我国的数据证明这一论断是缺乏实证支持的。使用1990年、2000年人口普查数据和2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据，本文考察了高年龄段人口就业对年轻人就业的影响。普通最小二乘估计结果（OLS）显示，年轻人就业与高年龄段人口就业显著正相关，而非负相关。我们进一步采用了面板数据双向固定效应回归和两阶段最小二乘回归以解决OLS估计可能存在的遗漏变量偏倚。结果仍然表明，高年龄段人口就业的增加会提高而非抑制年轻人就业。最后，我们还发现高年龄段人口就业对青年工人的工资水平有显著的正向影响。本文的研究表明，延迟退休年龄未必会挤出年轻人就业。

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Will Postponing Retirement Crowd out Youth Employment?
• Language: Chinese
• Keywords: 退休年龄 中老年人就业 年轻人就业
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor

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