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Famiglia e pressione fiscale

Campiglio, Luigi Pierfranco (2013): Famiglia e pressione fiscale.

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Abstract

We construct a detailed dataset, base on National Accounts, from 1991 to 2012, and the Bank of Italy survey on households in 2010, to measure the global tax burden on households consumer in Italy, distinguishing between direct, indirect taxes and social contributions. Global tax burden is estimated to 402 billions in 2012, compared with 1.567 billions of GDP, with a steadily increasing tax rate since 1991: we provide econometric estimates on the impact of each component on the household saving rate. A 1% increase of the global tax burden rate on consumer households decreases 2,9% their saving rate, which fell from 24% of disposable income in 1991 to 8% in 2012. We measure the economic impact of the decresing household saving rate on domestic investments and current account: over the period 2007-2012 only the financial sector recorded a significant increase in saving. We estimate the impact of direct and indirect taxes in 2010, in relation to households disposable income: the average direct tax rate increases from the third decile while the average indirect tax rate decrease from the 1st decile onward. The two tax rates crosses at the 5th decile. We compare two different type of households, single and double earners, at two different level of family income: the results allow a more careful analysis of horizontal equity and provide insights on the observed patterns of income inequality, family allowances and labor supply.

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