Munich Personal RePEc Archive

9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes

McMinn, David (2011): 9/56 Year Cycle: Californian Earthquakes. Published in: New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter No. 58 (March 2011): pp. 33-44.

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The 9/56 year cycle was first established in the timing of US and Western European financial panics since 1760. This cycle has also been assessed in the timing of major earthquakes in California - Nevada - Baja California. These important events tended to cluster within this grid, far more than could be expected by chance. Hawaiian quakes were also assessed and showed similarities with seismic episodes in south western North America. Furthermore, record seismic quakes appeared selectively within the 9/56 year cycle and included such important historical events as the 1700 Great Cascadia quake, the 1906 San Francisco quake and the 1980 Mt St Helens eruption, as well as the record quakes for Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona and Hawaii. Seasonality was another important factor as seismic events tended to occur around the same months of the year within various 9/56 configurations. The 9/56 year seismic cycle was hypothesised to arise from tidal triggering by the Moon and Sun. What seemed most important were the ecliptical positions of the Sun, lunar ascending node and apogee. This implied that the angles between these factors and the spring equinox point may offer clues as to how this cycle actually functions. The siting of the Moon on the ecliptical circle should also have relevance, although no supportive evidence could be offered in the paper.

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