Potatoes, Milk, and the Old World Population Boom

Cook, C. Justin (2013): Potatoes, Milk, and the Old World Population Boom.

Abstract

This paper explores the role of two important food sources, potatoes and milk, in explaining the large population growth experienced throughout the Old World in the 18th and 19th centuries. Nunn and Qian (2011) show that the introduction of the potato from the New World has a significant explanatory role for within country population and urbanization growth over this period. We expand on this by considering the role of milk consumption, which is hypothesized to be a complement of potatoes due to a differential composition of essential nutrients. Using a country-level measure for the suitability of milk consumption, the frequency of lactase persistence, we show that the marginal effect of potatoes on post-1700 population and urbanization growth is positively related to milk consumption. As the frequency of milk consumption approaches unity, the marginal effect of potatoes more than doubles in magnitude compared to the baseline estimate of Nunn and Qian.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Historical Growth; Population; Land Productivity; Milk; Potato
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics; N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations; N - Economic History > N5 - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products

References

Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J., (2002). Reversal of fortune: Geography and institutions in the making of the modern world income distribution. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107,1231-1294.

Ashraf, Q., & Galor, O. (2011). Dynamics and stagnation in the Malthusian epoch. American Economic Review, 101(5), 2003-2041.

Ashraf, Q., & Galor, O. (2013). The "Out of Africa" hypothesis, human genetic diversity, and comparative economic development. American Economic Review, 103(1), 1-46.

Alesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S., & Wacziarg, R. (2003). Fractionalization. Journal of Economic Growth, 8(2), 155-194.

Alesina, A., Giuliano, P., & Nunn, N. (2013). On the origins of gender roles: Women and the plough. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(2), 469-530.

Cook, C.J. (2013). The role of lactase persistence in precolonial development. Working Paper: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/96311558/Cook%20Lactase%20Persistence%208-14-13.pdf

Connor, S., & others (1986). The cholesterol/saturated-fat index: An indication of the hypercholesterolaemic and atherogenic potential of food. The Lancet, 1(8492), 1229-1232.

Crawford, E.M. (1984). Dearth, diet, and disease in Ireland, 1850: A case study of nutritional defficiency. Medical History, 28(2), 151-161.

Eppendorfer, W.H., & Eggum, B.O. (1994). Effects of sulphur, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and water stress on dietary fibre fractions, starch, amino acids and on the biological value of potato protein. Plant Foods for Human Nutrition, 45(4), 299-313.

FAO (2013). FAOSTAT Data Set. http://faostat.fao.org.

Galor, O., & Weil, D. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, 90(4), 806-828.

Hallberg, L. (1998). Does calcium interfere with iron absorption? American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 68, 3-4.

Hallberg, L., Brune, M., & Rossander, L. (1989). The role of vitamin C in iron absorption. International Journal for Vitamin and Nutrition Research, 30, 103-108.

Hoffman, J., & Falvo, M. (2004). Protein{which is best?. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 3(3), 118-130.

Ingram, C., Mulcare, C., Itan, Y., Thomas, M., & Swallow, D. (2009a). Lactose digestion and the evolutionary genetics of lactase persistence. Human Genetics, 124(6), 579-591.

Ingram, C., Raga, T., Tarekegn, A., Browning, S., Elamin, M., Bekele, E., Thomas, M., Weale, M., Bradman, N., & Swallow, D. (2009b). Multiple rare variants as a cause of a common phenotype: Several different lactase persistence associated alleles in a single ethnic group. Journal of Molecular Evolution, 69, 577-588.

IOM (2002). Dietary Reference Intakes for Energy, Carbohydrate, Fiber, Fat, Fatty Acids, Cholesterol, Protein, and Amino Acids. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.

Kooh, S. W., Graser, D., Reilly, B. J., Hamilton, J. R., Gall, D. G. & Bell, L. (1977). Rickets due to calcium defficiency. New England Journal of Medicine, 297, 1264-1266.

Lewis, M.P. (2009). Ethnologue: Languages of the World, Sixteenth Edition. Dallas, TX: SIL International.

Mansson, H. (2008). Fatty acids in bovine milk. Food and Nutrition Research, 52.

McEvedy, C., & Jones, R. (1976). Atlas of World Population History. New York, NY: Facts on File.

McNeil, W. (1999). How the potato changed the world's history. Social Research, 66, 67-83.

Milner, J., & Allison, R. (1999). The role of dietary fat in child nutrition and development: Summary of ASNS workshop. The Journal of Nutrition, 129(11), 2094-2105.

Mitchell, H.H. (1923). A method of determining the biological value of protein. Journal of Biological Chemistry, 58(3), 873-903.

Nunn, N., & Qian, N. (2011). The potato's contribution to population and urbanization: Evidence from a historical experiment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(2), 593-650.

Putterman, L., & Trainor (2006). Agricultural Transition Year Country Data Set. http://www.econ.brown.edu/fac/Louis _Putterman

Putterman, L., & Weil, D. (2010). Post-1500 population ows and the long-run determinants of economic growth and inequality. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4), 1627-82.

Sherratt, A. (1983). The secondary exploitation of animals in the Old World. World Archeology, 15(1),90-104.

Simoons, F. (1969). Primary adult lactose intolerance and the milking habit: A problem in biological and cultural interrelations. I. Review of the medical research. The American Journal of Digestive Diseases, 14, 819-836.

Sims, E., & Danforth, J. (1987). Expenditure and storage of energy in man. Journal of Clinical Investigation, 79(4), 1019-1025.

Tishkoff, S., Reed, F., Ranciaro, A., Voight, B., Babbitt, C., Silverman, J., Powell, K., Mortensen, H., Hirbo, J., Osman, M., & others (2006). Convergent adaptation of human lactase persistence in Africa and Europe. Nature Genetics, 39, 31-40.

USDA (2005). USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, Release 18. Nutrient Data Laboratory Home Page, http://www.nal.usda.gov/fnic/foodcomp

World Health Organization (2009).Milk Fluoridation for the Prevention of Dental Carries. Geneva: WHO Press